Week 16 opened with a bang with the Indian spot prices making a quantum jump of almost USD 10 per tonne since 16th April. The unprecedented escalation seems unstoppable leaving veterans exasperated. It is noteworthy that the gradient has become steeper with each passing days from 1% in mid February to 11% during the course of last one week.
The following factors needs to be mentioned
1. After the banishing import of iron ore below Fe 60% by Chinese traders India could play only second fiddle as the composition of Indian iron ore is skewed towards low grade. As a result, spot prices of high grade iron ore from India have sky rocketed. Although the CNF prices seem to be prevailing at USD 190 per tonne, freakish cases of USD 195 have also been heard on week opening.
2. Prevailing mining mess in India has further fanned the fire with curtailed supply especially on East Coast.
3. The three mining behemoths viz., Vale , Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton have been playing truant to the roost by withholding supplies to leverage negotiating power in contractual discussions creating a situation of "take it or leave it " for Chinese buyers.
4. Against the backdrop of limited ore supply, traders are postponing selling in anticipation of better realization thereby supporting the hike.
However all the fun and frolic is not devoid of an element of scepticism as the tenants of this surge seems artificial rather than market driven.
1. In all likelihood Chinese buyers will bulk under the burgeoning costly ore prices as the finished demand is not increasing proportionately . Domestic prices have already showed signs of waning towards the weekend when the prices of long and flat product dipped slightly.
2. Shanghai equities slumped the most in 6 weeks due to the suspension of lending from banks to third home buyers in some areas.
3. Once the Chinese buyers acquiesce to the demands of the biggies naturally the spot prices will be doused.
The iron ore prices seems all set for a turbulent phase in the coming weeks in view of the above paradoxical reasons however clarity will dawn after the shaping of price trend in the domestic market during the coming week.
No comments:
Post a Comment