Oil climbed to a life-time high above $130 a barrel on Wednesday, driven higher by a combination of long-term production worries and a near-term focus on tight fuel stocks.
A U.S. government report later on Wednesday was expected to show crude inventories rose for a fifth straight week.
Stocks of refined products were also forecast to have increased slightly, but the market is concerned distillates, which include heating oil and gasoline, could run short.
U.S. crude hit $130.05, up $1.07. London Brent gained $1.69 to $129.53 by 1009 GMT.
"This market refuses to lie down," said Robert Laughlin of MF Global. "There is fresh length coming into the market even at these lofty levels."
Investors have been drawn in by a weak U.S. currency, which has made dollar-denominated commodities relatively cheap for holders of other currencies.
The dollar slid to a one-month low against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as the euro was pushed higher by expectations of higher euro zone interest rates.
Speaking to Reuters during a visit to Venezuela, OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said the soft dollar was one of the factors that could keep pushing oil higher.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has kept official policy unchanged, but its biggest producer Saudi Arabia has raised production and other members have overcome problems that had reduced supplies.
Tanker tracker Petrologistics said on Wednesday OPEC's oil output in May had risen by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared with April.
Extra OPEC crude has had little impact as the market has instead focused on short-term refinery problems, which are symptomatic of chronic underinvestment.
Diesel consumption has led the energy complex higher after last week's earthquake in China increased the need for fuel to make up for disruption of other supplies.
The perception available oil will struggle to keep up with demand for the foreseeable future has led to a series of bullish price forecasts from investment banks and influential investors.
Billionaire T. Boone Pickens said on Tuesday he expected oil to hit $150 a barrel this year after Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS- news - people ) said earlier this month a barrel of crude could reach $200 by 2010.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
CARBON CREDITS – A MARKET OF THE 21st CENTURY
With growing concerns among nations to curb pollution levels while maintaining the growth in their economic activities, the emission trading (ET) industry has come to life. And, with the increasing ratification of Kyoto Protocol (KP) by countries and rising social accountability of polluting industries in the developed nations, the carbon emissions trading is likely to emerge as a multibillion-dollar market in global emissions trading. The recent surge in carbon credits trading activities in Europe is an indication of how the emissions trading industry is going to pan out in the years to come.
What is a carbon credit?
Simply put, one carbon credit is equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide or its equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG). Carbon credits are “Entitlement Certificates” issued by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to the implementers of the approved Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. The potential buyers of carbon credits shall be corporates in various Annexure I countries that need to meet the compliance prevailing in their countries as per the Kyoto Protocol or those investors who would like buy the credits and with the expectation of selling them at a higher price during the KP phase (2008-12). The extension of KP shall be ratified by the current signatories of KP in their future meetings essentially to curb GHG emissions into the environment.
Sources of demand & supply
Emerging carbon credit markets offer enormous opportunities for the upcoming manufacturing/public utility projects to employ a range of energy saving devices or any other mechanisms or technology to reduce GHG emissions and earn carbon credits to be sold at a price. The carbon credits can be either generated by project participants who acquire carbon credits through implementation of CDM in Non Annexure I countries or through Joint Implementation (JI) in Annexure I countries or supplied into the market by those who got surplus allowances with them. The buyers of carbon credits are principally from Annexure I countries. They are:
Especially European nations, as currently European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the most active market;
Other markets include Japan, Canada, New Zealand, etc.
The major sources of supply are Non-Annexure I countries such as India, China, and Brazil.
Trading In Carbon Credits
Emissions trading (ET) is a mechanism that enables countries with legally binding emissions targets to buy and sell emissions allowances among themselves. Currently, futures contracts in carbon credits are actively traded in the European exchanges. In fact, many companies actively participate in the futures market to manage the price risks associated with trading in carbon credits and other related risks such as project risk, policy risk, etc. Keeping in view the various risks associated with carbon credits, trading in futures contracts in carbon allowances has now become a reality in Europe with burgeoning volumes.
Currently, project participants, public utilities, manufacturing entities, brokers, banks, and others actively participate in futures trading in environment-related instruments. The European Climate Exchange (ECX), a subsidiary of Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), remains the leading exchange trading in European environmental instruments that are listed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), previously known as International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
Price influencing factors
In Non-Annexure B countries (the developing countries) across the world, CER prices are influenced by various factors including EUA prices, crude oil prices, electricity, coal, natural gas, the level of economic activities across Annexure I countries, among others
Some of the major price influencing factors:
Supply-demand mismatch
Policy issues
Crude oil prices
Coal prices
CO2 emissions
Weather/Fuel prices
European Union Allowances (EUAs) prices
Foreign exchange fluctuations
Global economic growth
Risks associated with carbon credits
The coming into being and operation of the EU-ETS, the ECX futures exchange platform, revealed that there are market- and policy-related risks for CER producers, including the supply-side risks starting from the DNA approval risk to the CER issuance risk in a complete CDM approval cycle. Apart from these risks there are a host of other risks from both the supply and demand sides that the real market players confront with.
Most CDM projects by their very nature take a long time to generate the CERs and hence, face the aforesaid risks in large proportion, which if not hedged would lead to reduced realization. Under such a situation, the realization of CER generators at times may not even cover the investment put in to generate the CERs and thus, has the potential of even making a CDM project unviable in the long term. Given the long gestation period of CDM projects and the risks involved, it is rather inevitable that they pre-sell their potential credits in the futures market (preferably a domestic futures market, to avoid forex risk attached to participation in a foreign exchange) and thereby, cover their probable downside in the physical market.
Potential participants in carbon credits trading are as below:
Hedgers
Producers
Intermediaries in spot markets
Ultimate buyers
Investors
Arbitragers
Portfolio managers
Diverse participants with wide participation objectives
Commodity financers
Funding agencies
Corporates having risk exposure in energy products
India as a potential supplier
India, being one of the leading generators of CERs through CDM, has a large scope in emissions trading. Analysts forecast that its trading in carbon credits would touch US$ 100 billion by 2010.
Currently, the total registered CDM projects are more than 300, almost 1/3rd of the total CDM projects registered with the UNFCCC. The total issued CERs with India as a host country till now stand at 34,101,315 (around 34 million), again around 1/3rd of the total CERs issued by the UNFCCC. In value terms (INR), it could be running into thousands of crores. Further, there has been a surge in number of registered projects in India. In 2007, a total of 160 new projects were registered with the UNFCCC indicating that more than half of all registered projects in India happened last year. It is expected that with increasing awareness this would go further up in the future. The number of expected annual CERs in India is hovering around 28 million and considering that each of these CERs is sold for around 15 euros, on an average, the expected value is going to be around Rs 2,500 crore.
Various industries that have scope of generation of CERs:
Agriculture
Energy ( renewable & non-renewable sources)
Manufacturing
Fugitive emissions from fuels (solid, oil and gas)
Metal production
Mining and mineral production
Chemicals
Afforestation & reforestation
The role of MCX
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) entered into a strategic alliance with CCX in September 2005 to initiate carbon trading in India. The tie-up would provide immense scope and opportunity for domestic suppliers to realize better prices for their carbon credits. Further, the MCX-CCX alliance would also integrate the Indian market with its global counterparts to foster world-class best practices in the commodities futures market as related to emission trading. With MCX keen to play a major role on the emission front by extending its platform to add carbon credits to its existing basket of commodities with regard to commodities futures trading, the existing and potential suppliers of carbon credits in India have geared up to generate more carbon credits from their existing and ongoing projects to be sold in the international markets. With India supposed to be a major supplier of carbon credits, the tie-up between the two exchanges is expected to ensure better price discovery of carbon credits, besides covering risks associated with buying and selling.
Advantages of an MCX carbon contract
In India, currently only bilateral deals and trading through intermediaries are widely prevalent leading to sellers being denied fair prices for their carbon credits. Advantages that the MCX platform offers are:
Sellers and intermediaries can hedge against price risk;
Advance selling could help projects generate liquidity and thereby, reduce costs of implementation;
There is no counterparty risk as the Exchange guarantees the trade;
The price discovery on the Exchange platform ensures a fair price for both the buyer and the seller;
Players are brought to a single platform, thus, eliminating the laborious process of identifying either buyers or sellers with enough credibility; and
The MCX futures floor gives an immediate reference price. At present, there is no transparency related to prices in the Indian carbon credit market, which has kept sellers at the receiving end with no bargaining power.
What is a carbon credit?
Simply put, one carbon credit is equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide or its equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG). Carbon credits are “Entitlement Certificates” issued by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to the implementers of the approved Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. The potential buyers of carbon credits shall be corporates in various Annexure I countries that need to meet the compliance prevailing in their countries as per the Kyoto Protocol or those investors who would like buy the credits and with the expectation of selling them at a higher price during the KP phase (2008-12). The extension of KP shall be ratified by the current signatories of KP in their future meetings essentially to curb GHG emissions into the environment.
Sources of demand & supply
Emerging carbon credit markets offer enormous opportunities for the upcoming manufacturing/public utility projects to employ a range of energy saving devices or any other mechanisms or technology to reduce GHG emissions and earn carbon credits to be sold at a price. The carbon credits can be either generated by project participants who acquire carbon credits through implementation of CDM in Non Annexure I countries or through Joint Implementation (JI) in Annexure I countries or supplied into the market by those who got surplus allowances with them. The buyers of carbon credits are principally from Annexure I countries. They are:
Especially European nations, as currently European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the most active market;
Other markets include Japan, Canada, New Zealand, etc.
The major sources of supply are Non-Annexure I countries such as India, China, and Brazil.
Trading In Carbon Credits
Emissions trading (ET) is a mechanism that enables countries with legally binding emissions targets to buy and sell emissions allowances among themselves. Currently, futures contracts in carbon credits are actively traded in the European exchanges. In fact, many companies actively participate in the futures market to manage the price risks associated with trading in carbon credits and other related risks such as project risk, policy risk, etc. Keeping in view the various risks associated with carbon credits, trading in futures contracts in carbon allowances has now become a reality in Europe with burgeoning volumes.
Currently, project participants, public utilities, manufacturing entities, brokers, banks, and others actively participate in futures trading in environment-related instruments. The European Climate Exchange (ECX), a subsidiary of Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), remains the leading exchange trading in European environmental instruments that are listed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), previously known as International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
Price influencing factors
In Non-Annexure B countries (the developing countries) across the world, CER prices are influenced by various factors including EUA prices, crude oil prices, electricity, coal, natural gas, the level of economic activities across Annexure I countries, among others
Some of the major price influencing factors:
Supply-demand mismatch
Policy issues
Crude oil prices
Coal prices
CO2 emissions
Weather/Fuel prices
European Union Allowances (EUAs) prices
Foreign exchange fluctuations
Global economic growth
Risks associated with carbon credits
The coming into being and operation of the EU-ETS, the ECX futures exchange platform, revealed that there are market- and policy-related risks for CER producers, including the supply-side risks starting from the DNA approval risk to the CER issuance risk in a complete CDM approval cycle. Apart from these risks there are a host of other risks from both the supply and demand sides that the real market players confront with.
Most CDM projects by their very nature take a long time to generate the CERs and hence, face the aforesaid risks in large proportion, which if not hedged would lead to reduced realization. Under such a situation, the realization of CER generators at times may not even cover the investment put in to generate the CERs and thus, has the potential of even making a CDM project unviable in the long term. Given the long gestation period of CDM projects and the risks involved, it is rather inevitable that they pre-sell their potential credits in the futures market (preferably a domestic futures market, to avoid forex risk attached to participation in a foreign exchange) and thereby, cover their probable downside in the physical market.
Potential participants in carbon credits trading are as below:
Hedgers
Producers
Intermediaries in spot markets
Ultimate buyers
Investors
Arbitragers
Portfolio managers
Diverse participants with wide participation objectives
Commodity financers
Funding agencies
Corporates having risk exposure in energy products
India as a potential supplier
India, being one of the leading generators of CERs through CDM, has a large scope in emissions trading. Analysts forecast that its trading in carbon credits would touch US$ 100 billion by 2010.
Currently, the total registered CDM projects are more than 300, almost 1/3rd of the total CDM projects registered with the UNFCCC. The total issued CERs with India as a host country till now stand at 34,101,315 (around 34 million), again around 1/3rd of the total CERs issued by the UNFCCC. In value terms (INR), it could be running into thousands of crores. Further, there has been a surge in number of registered projects in India. In 2007, a total of 160 new projects were registered with the UNFCCC indicating that more than half of all registered projects in India happened last year. It is expected that with increasing awareness this would go further up in the future. The number of expected annual CERs in India is hovering around 28 million and considering that each of these CERs is sold for around 15 euros, on an average, the expected value is going to be around Rs 2,500 crore.
Various industries that have scope of generation of CERs:
Agriculture
Energy ( renewable & non-renewable sources)
Manufacturing
Fugitive emissions from fuels (solid, oil and gas)
Metal production
Mining and mineral production
Chemicals
Afforestation & reforestation
The role of MCX
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) entered into a strategic alliance with CCX in September 2005 to initiate carbon trading in India. The tie-up would provide immense scope and opportunity for domestic suppliers to realize better prices for their carbon credits. Further, the MCX-CCX alliance would also integrate the Indian market with its global counterparts to foster world-class best practices in the commodities futures market as related to emission trading. With MCX keen to play a major role on the emission front by extending its platform to add carbon credits to its existing basket of commodities with regard to commodities futures trading, the existing and potential suppliers of carbon credits in India have geared up to generate more carbon credits from their existing and ongoing projects to be sold in the international markets. With India supposed to be a major supplier of carbon credits, the tie-up between the two exchanges is expected to ensure better price discovery of carbon credits, besides covering risks associated with buying and selling.
Advantages of an MCX carbon contract
In India, currently only bilateral deals and trading through intermediaries are widely prevalent leading to sellers being denied fair prices for their carbon credits. Advantages that the MCX platform offers are:
Sellers and intermediaries can hedge against price risk;
Advance selling could help projects generate liquidity and thereby, reduce costs of implementation;
There is no counterparty risk as the Exchange guarantees the trade;
The price discovery on the Exchange platform ensures a fair price for both the buyer and the seller;
Players are brought to a single platform, thus, eliminating the laborious process of identifying either buyers or sellers with enough credibility; and
The MCX futures floor gives an immediate reference price. At present, there is no transparency related to prices in the Indian carbon credit market, which has kept sellers at the receiving end with no bargaining power.
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