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Friday, September 04, 2009

Intensified Doha talks to resume this month

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Key trade ministers agreed on Friday to relaunch the World Trade Organisation's Doha talks with intensified negotiations later this month, Commerce Minister, Anand Sharma, said on Friday.

WTO members' chief negotiators will meet in Geneva from Sept. 14, in the run-up to the Pittsburgh G20 summit, to grapple with outstanding issues in the talks, now in their eighth year, with the aim of completing the round by 2010, he said.

"We have reached an agreement to intensify the negotiations," Sharma told a news conference after two days of talks hosted by an India keen to throw off its reputation as the spoiler of the talks and underline its leadership role.

"There has been a breakthrough in this meeting... The impasse in resuming the negotiations have been broken."

Political leaders have called repeatedly in recent months to conclude the Doha round, launched in 2001 to help developing countries grow by opening trade, to help pull the world out of the economic crisis and fight protectionism.

"What India has done is to weave these strands together into a single initiative translating into action," Sharma said.


OPEN ISSUES

The Delhi meeting did not look at any of the specific issues that remain open, such as a safeguard to help farmers in poor countries cope with a flood of imports, or proposals to eliminate duties entirely in some industrial sectors.

That will be up to the negotiators, but Sharma expressed confidence that such issues could be resolved around the negotiating table if countries were willing.

The talks will resume on the basis of the draft negotiating texts issued in December 2008.

That should provide comfort to WTO members from Brazil to the European Union who had feared that the United States wanted to unpick what has already been agreed over the past seven years, jeopardising the emerging deal.

Both Sharma and U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk said it would be wrong to throw away the work achieved so far, but stressed that the texts were drafts and could be improved.

Kirk noted that the texts were still full of blanks, where WTO members had not yet found common ground.

"Obviously we've got to put some meat on the bones in that case. It has never been our argument that we should start all over again or reopen them, but we have to have some idea of what those gaps and blanks are," he told Reuters.

Ministers also reiterated that the talks had to be multilateral, since any deal must be signed off by all 153 WTO members.

But Sharma said ministers had agreed there was a role for one-on-one contacts or talks in small groups to help countries understand better what their partners wanted and could offer.

For the United States, these bilateral contacts are the key to taking the stalled talks forward, Kirk told a news conference.

Indian Stocks Rise, Led by Commodities Producers, Automakers

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks rose, led by commodities suppliers and consumer goods makers, after metals rose on speculation that an economic recovery will increase demand and a government agency said monsoon rainfall increased.

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., the nation’s biggest copper producer, rose 4 percent as the metal climbed. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., India’s largest maker of tractors, jumped 6.7 percent after a soybean processors group said widespread monsoon showers in July aided sowing. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., the maker of half the cars sold in the nation, climbed to a record on the expectation that the company will sell more cars in the festival season starting this month.

“There has been a good run-up in the automobile stocks; but still there is some steam left,” said Ajay Argal, who helps manage about $9.2 billion in assets at Birla Sun Life Asset Management Co. in Mumbai. “Sales may go up in the festival season. We are positive on the auto sector.”

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 290.79, or 1.9 percent, to 15,689.12, paring its weekly loss to 1.5 percent. Twenty eight stocks gained while two fell. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 1.9 percent to 4,680.40. The BSE 200 Index gained 1.6 percent to 1,931.20.

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., the nation’s biggest copper producer, rose 4 percent to 670.05 rupees. Hindalco Industries Ltd., the No. 1 aluminum producer, added 2.1 percent to 105.2 rupees.

December-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange added 2.6 percent. Three-month delivery copper advanced 1.3 percent on the London Metal Exchange at 4:35 p.m. in India. Aluminum rose 0.4 percent.

Hero Honda

Mahindra & Mahindra surged 6.7 percent to 867.45 rupees. Maruti Suzuki gained 2.6 percent to 1,546.6 rupees. Hero Honda Motors Ltd., the country’s biggest motorcycle maker, advanced 4.1 percent to 1,610.9 rupees. Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti are among the top three gainers on the Sensex this year to date.

Mahindra’s August sales, excluding tractors, soared 14.8 percent from a year earlier. Maruti Suzuki’s sales in the same period jumped 42 percent to a record. Hero Honda sold 36 percent more motorcycles in August compared with the same period a year earlier.

The September-to-November festival season is traditionally a time when employers pay bonuses. Manufacturers and retailers count on spending during festivities up to Diwali in October to buoy profit. Sales in the period account for about 50 percent of second-half revenue, according to Godrej Consumer Products Ltd., a household goods maker. LG Electronics Inc. said last month it expects Indian sales to rise 30 percent this festival season.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd., the local unit of the world’s second-largest consumer-goods maker, added 2 percent to 273.05 rupees.

Gas Prices

Oil & Natural Gas Corp., the country’s biggest energy producer, jumped 3.3 percent to 1,178.2 rupees. India may increase the price of natural gas extracted from fields awarded to state explorers by 44 percent, easing revenue losses for Oil & Natural Gas.

A proposal to increase the price of the gas to $2.60 per million British thermal units from $1.80 currently will be submitted to the Cabinet soon, V.L.V.S.S. Subba Rao, joint adviser of finance in the oil ministry, told reporters in New Delhi today. The price, effective April 1, 2009, is linked to India’s wholesale price index, he said.

Overseas funds sold a net 5.74 billion rupees ($117 million) of Indian stocks on Sept. 2, the Securities and Exchange Board of India said on its Web site. The funds have bought 393.1 billion rupees of the nation’s stocks this year to date, compared with a record net sales of 530 billion rupees for the whole of 2008.

The following stocks were among the most active on the exchange:

Amtek Auto Ltd. (AMTK IN): The Indian maker of automotive parts advanced to its highest level in almost a year in Mumbai trading after saying it will raise $175 million by selling securities, in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange yesterday. Amtek shares gained 14 percent to 182.05 rupees.

JSW Steel Ltd. (JSTL IN) gained 3.1 percent to 692.7 rupees. The country’s third-largest steelmaker raised prices of flat products, used to make automobiles, by 2.5 percent to 4 percent, director Jayant Acharya said in a text message.

Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL IN) climbed 2.6 percent to 164.3 rupees. The nation’s second-biggest steelmaker yesterday said sales in August rose 20 percent from a year earlier to 1.1 million metric tons.

Indian Stocks Rise, Led by Commodities Producers, Automakers

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers in August likely cut jobs by the least amount in a year, a sign of healing in the labor market as the economy starts to claw out of the worst recession in 70 years, according to a Reuters survey.

Analysts said much of the slowdown in the pace of layoffs was due to a rebound in manufacturing, with automakers increasing output to meet a surge in demand, triggered by the "cash-for-clunkers" program.

The unemployment rate was forecast to have inched up in August after dipping slightly the previous month, as the economy's improving prospects lured discouraged job seekers back into the labor market.

The survey of 81 economists forecast employers cut 225,000 jobs in August, which would be the least amount for any month since August 2008, after laying off 247,000 workers in July. They saw the unemployment rate edging up to 9.5 percent from 9.4 percent, which was the first dip since April 2008.

The Labor Department will release the August employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).

"Job losses are tapering off, you are hearing less announcements of layoffs by large companies. The auto industry is producing more cars and the trend that started in July will be carried over into August," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh.

The government's "cash-for-clunkers" program, which gave drivers a discount to trade in old gas guzzlers for fuel efficient vehicles, unleashed a surge in demand for autos, prompting General Motors, among others, to raise production.

The No. 1 U.S. carmaker said last month it would bring back about 1,350 hourly workers in the U.S. and Canada to assembly plants. Analysts said the incentive, which ended last week, had helped to stabilize employment in manufacturing.

They expected companies, who they said probably overreacted to the slump in demand by aggressively axing jobs, to start hiring new workers as they rebuild inventories that have been reduced to record low levels.

CUT TO THE BONE

"We believe that firms cut their staffing levels to the bone early in 2009 and will be forced to rehire quickly as activity begins to rise," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS in Greenwich, Connecticut.

"Already, there have been scattered anecdotes that companies are bringing laid-off workers back, most prominently in the auto industry and we look for these stories to become increasingly frequent going forward."

The Institute for Supply Management survey for August, released on Tuesday, showed manufacturing employment still contracting, but the index was at its highest in a year.

Labor market stability is crucial for the economy's recovery from a devastating recession that started in December 2007. While data continue to suggest a recovery is underway, high unemployment is casting doubts over its sustainability.

Unemployment is putting pressure on household incomes, restraining their capacity to spend. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

Analysts reckon payrolls should start to grow late this year or in early 2010.

"It's absolutely necessary, otherwise this will end up being a false start," said PNC Financial Services' Hoffman.

"If not late this year, but early next year we will actually start to see some increases in payrolls. That will help to reinforce, what is still going to be a weak, but sustained recovery in the U.S. and probably global as well."

Even with the economy expected to return to growth in the second half of this year and the pace of job losses to slow down significantly, unemployment was expected to rise to as high as 10 percent by December.

August's employment report also will be scrutinized for signs of improvement in the average workweek and hourly earnings. The average workweek closely correlates with overall output and could shed light on when firms will start hiring.

The average workweek is expected to be unchanged at 33.1 hours in August, after gaining slightly in July. Average hourly earnings were expected to rise for a second straight month in August, reflecting the government minimum wage increase.

"The workweek typically begins to rise as payroll losses moderate coming out of a recession, but back-to-back gains are unusual unless gross domestic product growth is strong," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JP Morgan in New York.

Asian Stocks Fluctuate as Brokerages Downgrade Seven & I, Hynix

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fluctuated, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index set for its third weekly drop in five, as brokerage downgrades of Seven & I Holdings Co. and Hynix Semiconductor Inc. countered a rally in metal prices.

Seven & I, the world’s largest convenience store operator, fell 3.2 percent in Tokyo and Hynix Semiconductor Inc., the world’s No. 2 maker of computer-memory chips, sank 6.4 percent in Seoul. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold miner, added 1.1 percent after the metal jumped to a six-month high. Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead Co. surged 10 percent in Shanghai.

Almost five stocks dropped for every four that rose on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which was little changed at 112.44 as of 12:26 p.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has lost 1.3 percent this week, paring its advance from a five-year low on March 9 to 59 percent.

“We’ve seen that economically things are improving, but the big question is how much of that is already in the price,” said Matt Riordan, who helps manage about $3.8 billion at Paradice Investment Management in Sydney. “We need to see companies pushing up their guidance. If that doesn’t happen it means things are looking pretty full on the valuation side.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.2 percent, paring an earlier 0.4 percent advance. Daiwa Securities Group Inc. sank 4.6 percent after Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. said it’s in talks to end a brokerage venture between the two. China’s Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.1 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.7 percent. Asciano Group, the country’s largest port and rail operator, climbed 3.6 percent after announcing changes to its board. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.5 percent.

U.S. Retail Sales

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The gauge added 0.9 percent yesterday, ending a four- day losing streak, as supermarket operator Costco Wholesale Corp. and clothier Gap Inc. reported sales that beat estimates.

Seven & I fell 3.2 percent to 2,080 yen after Hidehiko Aoki, an analyst at Merrill, downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy.” Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co., which offered to buy U.S. drugmaker Sepracor Inc. for $2.6 billion yesterday, sank 5.6 percent to 968 yen. Ritsuo Watanabe, an analyst at Merrill Lynch, lowered the stock to “underperform” from “neutral,” because of expiring patents at Sepracor.

Hynix slumped 6.4 percent to 20,650 won. Daewoo Securities Co. cut its rating to “hold” from “buy,” saying the share price already reflects an improved earnings outlook.

Gold, Lead

In Sydney, Newcrest Mining added 1.1 percent to A$32.21. St. Barbara Ltd., a rival, surged 5.6 percent to 28.5 Australian cents. Zijin Mining Group Co., China’s largest gold-mining company, climbed 2.9 percent to HK$7.08. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan’s biggest gold and nickel producer, climbed 1.2 percent to 1,479 yen in Tokyo.

Gold futures in New York jumped to a six-month high yesterday, reaching $999.50 an ounce, on speculation a weak dollar will boost demand for precious metals as an alternative investment. An index of six metals in London climbed 1.6 percent yesterday, the most since Aug. 28.

Lead jumped as much as 2.9 percent in London to the highest level since May 16, 2008, following a 7.8 percent surge yesterday. Henan Yuguang, China’s top producer of the metal, gained by the 10 percent daily limit to 18.30 yuan. Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co. added 5.9 percent to 22.50 yuan.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s rally since March came as economic and earnings figures bolstered optimism the worst of the global economic crisis has passed.

Beating Predictions

This week, Australia’s statistics bureau reported second- quarter gross domestic product growth that was faster than economists estimated, while Japan’s Trade Ministry said Aug. 31 that industrial production climbed 1.9 percent from June, also exceeding economist targets.

The stock rally boosted the average price of stocks in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to 23 times estimated earnings, compared with 16.7 times for the S&P 500, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“I’m guessing we’ll see the correction continue before a real buying opportunity emerges,” said Hiroshi Morikawa, a senior strategist at MU Investments Co., which manages the equivalent of $13 billion. “Recent data has been fundamentally strong, but the market is showing a lukewarm reaction.”

In Tokyo, Daiwa fell 4.6 percent to 516 yen, while Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan’s second-biggest bank, was unchanged at 3,850 yen. The companies said in separate statements that no final decision had been made on ending their brokerage venture.

In Sydney, Asciano climbed 3.6 percent to A$1.565. The company said Malcolm Broomhead will take over as chairman from Tim Poole, who will step down from the role at the company’s annual meeting in October. Broomhead is a former managing director of Melbourne-based Orica Ltd., the world’s largest maker of industrial explosives.