This blog will tell you about the daily happenings in the Stock market all around the globe and expert's opinion on the market. I personally believe that if we educate people then it will be very easy to convince and make them to invest, that's why I am trying to focus on the first part i.e., Educating People !! Creator & Designer: Mudit Kumar Dutt
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Monday, March 10, 2008
Govt postpones NELP VII bid date: Official
"We have revised the schedule for promotional roadshows in Singapore and Australia. The road show in Singapore will now be held on March 28, and the one in Perth on March 31.
This leaves very little time for Companies to evaluate data and take a bid so the bid closing date has been postponed," said Anil Jain Joint Secretary (Exploration) Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas.
The government has offered 57 oil and gas blocks, including 19 in deep sea, 29 on land and 9 in shallow water areas in the seventh round of auction under the New Exploration Licencing Policy (NELP).
It will complete the bid evaluation, award and signing of production sharing contract by July-August.
Nickel, aluminium improves on fresh buying support
Marketmen said reduced arrivals against better offtake largely pushed up nickel and aluminium price. Meanwhile, rest of other base metal maintained last closing levels on low trade. Nickel plate (4x4) (9x9) and (4x24) moved up by Rs.5 each to settle at Rs. 1410-1485, Rs.1420-1490 and Rs.1430-1495 a kilo respectively on increased buying interest.
Aluminium ingot and aluminium sheet cutting gained by Rs 2 each to settle at Rs 132 and Rs 127 a kilo respectively. Aluminium wire scrap and aluminium utensils scrap also rose by Rs 2 each at Rs 122 and Rs 117 a kilo respectively. Tin ingot were also quoted higher by rupee one to close at Rs 837 a kilo due to better offtake.
Where to GO............................
Still, even though the Sensex has dropped by 23 per cent from its peak level two months ago, and though the market plunged through last week, the Indian market has outperformed emerging market equities over the past year. However, that cannot hide the fact that much has changed since September; above all, the sub-prime crisis in the US has got much worse than initially predicted, and US housing prices have dropped to levels where foreclosures will continue to climb. Credit spreads have widened, and a US recession is of course now taken for granted. The de-coupling theory may or may not be valid when it comes to over-all economic trends, but it is manifestly non-operational when it comes to financial markets. If stocks fall in New York one day, they will almost certainly fall in Mumbai the next. After all, foreign institutional investors have been compelled to take home some profits even if they believe that India remains one of the world’s better investment destinations.
While the froth created by large speculative positions in the options and futures segment may have come off, both high net worth and retail investors will take a while before they come to terms with their losses. The so-called strength of domestic liquidity is not in evidence, though it would be unfair to expect mutual funds and insurance firms to buy into the market in its current condition. Volumes in the cash market are therefore about 40 per cent lower than the peak, and headed towards the lows of mid-2006. At 15,976, the Sensex trades at about 16 times forward earnings, which is reasonable in the Indian context. But investors are not convinced that all risks are priced in. They may well be right, because there could be an earnings downside that has not been anticipated.
Meanwhile, most observers are convinced that the growth in corporate earnings, even if it tapers off, should be reasonably good, in the 15-20 per cent range. But that does not seem to be good enough for investors, and it’s not that their concerns are unfounded. The financial problems of banks abroad could worsen, and not all of them may be bailed out by sovereign funds. Technology firms are vulnerable to falling orders and banks are already taking hits on exposures overseas. The farm loan waiver, without a clarification on how banks will be compensated, has added to the uncertainty. It would help if the Reserve Bank dropped interest rates, but that is not certain when inflation is going up.
India Inc opposes 25% public holding norm
Some large companies said the measure would broaden and deepen the equity cult in the country, but feel that a blanket 25 per cent minimum public shareholding norm should not be applied indiscriminately to all companies.
The ministry had floated the paper on February 1 and asked for public comments by the month-end. The minimum public shareholding limit now is 10 per cent.
Finance ministry officials have received around 40 responses. “We are analysing the comments sent by various respondents. The consultation process is on,” an official said.
The finance ministry and The Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI) will hold discussions with company representatives on March 29 to evolve a consensus on the proposal.
“The exercise is meant to give India Inc a platform to share their views on the issue and clear their doubts,” the official said.
The chief financial officer of a large, listed private sector telecom services company told Business Standard that a minimum float of 25 per cent is not necessary. “This norm can apply to small firms, but it may not be practical for companies with large market capitalisation,” he said.
For instance, if the 25 per cent norm were to apply to a recent IPO by one of India’s largest real estate firms, the company would have had to raise around Rs 20,000 crore through the issue.
“The company may not have wanted to raise so much money. On the other hand, it was also not possible for it to issue the shares at a lower premium only to satisfy regulatory norms,” a market analyst said.
On its part, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) has said the proposal to amend the listing norms “is fraught with manifold issues and concerns and should be thoroughly examined before implementation”.
Not everybody agrees. Primary market experts like Prithvi Haldea said there is a need to revise the threshold as the existing 10 per cent public shareholding norm is leading to lower floats and, therefore, higher manipulation.
Price discovery in the secondary market is also not very good, Haldea added. The goal should be to ensure larger floats so that the market is more orderly.
Referring to all large initial public offers over the past five or six years, which have coincided with an unprecedented bull run in the equity market, Haldea said most issues came with a float size of 10 per cent. In 1999, all IPOs with an issue size of Rs 100 crore were allowed to float 10 per cent of their equity base.
“My concern is that the Rs 100 crore threshold is very small and was set at a time when the market had not evolved to its present state. There is a need to review this threshold and take it to Rs 300 crore to Rs 400 crore”, he added.
NEW STATS
P-Notes policy may be reviewed once again: Sources
Sebi is consulting NSE, BSE & market participants, sources said. Earlier the Sebi had believed that the new OTC (over-the-counter) products would fill the gap, but now the Sebi has felt the need to take additional steps. The Sebi Committee will present its final report on the matter in two-three weeks.
The matter will come up in the next Sebi Board meet.
Inflation, global factors pull down Sensex
The week also left behind footprints of a bear phase with the US economic data released on Friday showing a fall in employment in February, heightening worries about the Economy.
Crude oil prices also remained above 100 dollar level and hovered around its record high and the US credit crisis continued to cast a shadow on the global Economy.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) too have adopted a cautious approach in the prevailing situation after the dollar continued to seek new lows against the basket of currencies in overseas Markets.
FIIs pulled out nearly Rs 1,286 crore from equity in the initial three days of week. They are net sellers to the tune of Rs 13,630 crore so far in the current calendar year.
The Bombay Stock Exchange 30-share index breached 16K level for the first time after September 17, 2007, raising fears of a bear phase.
In the week to March 8, the Sensex plunged by 1,603.20 points or 9.12 per cent to end the week at 15,975.52 from its last weekend's close of 17,578.72.
Similarly, the National Stock Exchange's S&P CNX Nifty also tumbled by 451.90 points or 8.65 per cent to close the week at 4,771.60 from previous weekend's close of 5,223.50.
The proposal to hike the short-term capital gains tax and another of Rs 60,000 crore loan-waiver also contributed to the bourses slide.
Gitanjali Gems to offer gold loans
Gitanjali Gems has also acquired Renaissance Reail Venture (RRVPL) through Gitanjali Lifestyle. "RRVPL is engaged in the business of promoting, conducting and managing retail stores, dealing and trading in all sorts of silver, gold, platinum and other diamond studded jewellery. Lucera is one of the premium brand owned by RRVPL," the release added.
Bear market confirmed by southern breakout
Background and breadth indicators were also poor. Volumes remained low, and declines far outnumbered advances. Smaller stocks lost more ground. The Nifty Junior was down 14.45 per cent and the Nifty Midcaps was down 11.31 per cent. The BSE 50 lost 10.59 per cent. The BankNifty lost an extraordinary 16.35 per cent while the CNXIT was down 5.59 per cent – relatively little damage due to the weaker rupee.
Outlook: Several key supports were busted as the market moved decisively outside the trading zone of 5,000-5,600. There is support at current levels and good support at 4,600. While there could be a short-term recovery, the upside will be restricted by resistance between 4,900-5,000. A major bear market is confirmed.
Rationale: The breakout has pulled the indices decisively below respective 200 Day Moving Averages (DMA) and those will be resistances on a pullback. In the short-term, momentum indicators are oversold and this could trigger a short-term recovery. In the long-term, sequential closes below the 200 DMA confirms a major bear market.
Counter-view: Liquidity will be a key factor in any recovery. But volumes are down through the past 6 weeks and that is a bad sign. It would be a positive signal if the market climbed back to 5,000-plus and closed above the 200 DMA. But that looks unlikely since it would require substantial volume increase.
Bulls and Bears: A few sectors have defensive strength. Pharma and auto shares look to have the best insulation along with FMCGs. Ranbaxy is looking like a counter-cyclical, as is Aurobindo. Metals look more risky but Hindalco, Sterlite, Sesa Goa and perhaps, Tata Steel are reasonable bets for aggressive long traders. Dabur India and HUL are defensive counters. In the auto sector, Hero Honda and Bharat Forge seem decent defensive bets.
On the flip side, bank stocks were butchered with panic across the board. There could be a smart pullback here eventually due to short-covering. The stocks to watch are SBI, Bank of Baroda, Kotak and of course, ICICI itself. Reliance Capital could also respond to the buyback offer, and LIC Housing is also likely to do beat other financial stocks.
Auto sales down 10% in February: SIAM
Forex reserves cross $300 bn at February-end
Over $102 billion have been added to the reserves since the beginning of the financial year (April 2007) due to huge capital flows, and remittances as well as weakening of dollar.
The reserves stood at $294.61 billion at the end of February 22, 2008. The forex kitty swelled by $6.62 billion, amongst the largest accretion to reserves in a span of a week. At the end of December 2007, reserves were $275.55 billion. This means addition of $25.9 billion in first two months of calendar 2008.
These large flows have come at the cost to the system.
The Reserve Bank of India has had to frequently issue government securities under Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS) to mop up excess liquidity in the system on account of huge flows.
The interest cost for MSS securities is borne by the Centre. At the beginning of FY08, the allocation for net interest payment under MSS were Rs 3,700 crore.
Later, the government revised it to Rs 8,351 crore. For 2008-09, the allocation is pegged at Rs 13,958 crore.
Corporate Announcement
Msp Steel & Power Limited has informed the Exchange that : "MSP Steel & Power Limited has signed Memorandum of Understandings (MOU) with M.P Trade & Investment Facilitation Corp Ltd., Government of Madhya Pradesh, on 16.02.2008 for setting up two Iron Ore Beneficiation Plants, one in the District of Jabalpur & other in Katni, with the capacities of 5.0 MTPA each, with a proposed Investment of Rs. 200.00 crores in each plant and a Pelletisation and Steel Plant of appropriate capacities in the above districts provided that the beneficiated ore is suitable for pelletisation. Government of Madhya Pradesh shall facilitate required infrastructure facilities, incentives and will facilitate to obtain the necessary clearances and concessions for the project from single window".
C & C Constructions Limited
C & C Constructions Limited has informed the Exchange regarding the press release as follows: "C & C Constructions Ltd has been awarded two contracts amounting to Rs 202 crores from the Himachal Pradesh Road and Infrastructure Development Corporation Limited. This is the first entry of the company in the state of Himachal Pradesh. Earlier the company had bagged three orders cumulatively worth Rs 209 crores from the state of Punjab under the World Bank aided development scheme. The two contracts in Himachal Pradesh, also under the World Bank aegis, are for widening and strengthening of a 90 km stretch within the state .The company has a forte of bagging additional works in and around the area they start work. With the addition of these orders the company's order book now stands at Rs 1008 crores which it is confident of executing by June 2009."
Gufic Biosciences Limited
Gufic Biosciences Limited has informed the Exchange that the dividend on the Equity shares of the Company proposed to be declared at the Annual General Meeting of the Company to be held on March 31, 2008, if approved by the shareholders, will be paid on or before April 30, 2008.
Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd.
Alkyl Amines Chemicals Ltd. has informed the Exchange that: "Alkyl Amines is well underway with its new expansion project to enhance its Ethylamines capacity following the successful debottlenecking done in 2007. The work on this project began over two months ago. The Company plans to expand its current capacity by around 35% .This expansion project will be completed in the second half of CY2008, and will further enhance Alkyl's position as a leading global supplier of Ethylamines".
Renaissance Jewellery Limited
Renaissance Jewellery Limited has informed the Exchange that Renaissance Jewellery Ltd. has sold its entire shareholding in its wholly owned subsidiary viz Renaissance Retail Venture Private Limited to Gitanjali Lifestyle Limited.Renaissance Jewellery Limited has informed the Exchange that Renaissance Jewellery Ltd. has sold its entire shareholding in its wholly owned subsidiary viz Renaissance Retail Venture Private Limited to Gitanjali Lifestyle Limited.
KEC International Limited
Kec International Limited has informed the Exchange regarding a press release dated March 10, 2008, titled "KEC International Bags Biggest Single Contract Worth Rs. 482 Crore".
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Rupee at 6-month low as stock losses weigh
At 10:40 a.m., the partially convertible rupee was trading at 40.685/695 per dollar, off a low of 40.715, its lowest since Sept. 10, according to Reuters data. It ended at 40.525/535 per dollar on Friday.
"Obviously, the Sensex is down, much like the Dow Jones and Asian markets," said a trader with a state-run bank.
"Foreigners are going to be pulling out their money," he added.
India's benchmark share index was down more than 3 percent on Monday and other Asian markets also fell as sentiment was hit by worries about the U.S. economic outlook after weak U.S. jobs data.
Foreign buying of local shares are a key driver of the rupee. Foreigners have sold $3.4 billion in local equities so far this year, after buying a record $17.4 billion in 2007.
"Also, we've seen Indian oil companies buying dollars today for crude oil purchases," the trader also said.
U.S. oil prices were above $105 a barrel, within sight of Friday's record high of $106.54. India imports more than two-thirds of its oil, and rising crude prices could widen the trade deficit and put downward pressure on the rupee.
India growth seen slowing again in March quarter
Pronab Sen told Reuters Asia's third-largest economy probably grew in India's fiscal fourth-quarter around 8.2 percent from a year earlier. That would mark the third straight quarterly slowdown in annual economic growth.
Growth picked up in the April-June quarter of 2007 to 9.3 percent, but then slowed to 8.9 percent for July-September and 8.4 percent for October-December.
"I would suspect it would be somewhat lower than that, probably around 8.2 or thereabouts (in the March quarter)," Sen, secretary ministry of statistics and programme implementation, said.
He said the economy would probably grow more or less 8.7 percent in the fiscal year to March 31, but the outlook for the following year was hard to judge due to uncertainty in the global economy.
"We are converging on to a trend which is somewhere in the 8.0 to 8.5 percent region," Sen said.
"We've run above that for a while, essentially driven by past excess capacities and very, very strong investment performance, but now everything seems to be settling down."
India's growth rate has eased from above 9 percent in 2006/07. The statistics office will release data for the March quarter in May.
Full-year gross domestic product increases have been revised higher in recent years, with the 2006/07 rate lifted to 9.6 percent from an initial reading of 9.4 percent.
Sen said experience showed that when the economy was on an accelerating trend the revisions tended to raise the growth rate from the earlier estimates.
"But if there's a mild deceleration or any deceleration going on, then the revisions are usually a little lower. So whether we get 8.7, I can't say for certain, but it would be around that somewhere, give or take 0.2 percentage points," he said.
Industrial output also indicated an overall slowdown.
"We are no longer in that 10.5-11.5 percent range that we had last year," he said, adding the range was now more like 7.5-9.5 percent annual growth for industrial production.
"But that's a part, as we said, of really converging to the trend."
TRICKY YEAR AHEAD
The outlook for 2008/09, beginning on April 1, was tricky to determine because much would depend on what happened to the global economy. Economists expect global growth to slow this year from the impact of the U.S. housing downturn and credit crisis.
"We don't know the magnitude of the global economic slowdown," he said.
India might not be as affected directly by a slowdown in the U.S. economy as some east Asian and European countries, but it would feel an impact.
"It would probably happen a little later here than it would happen in other countries, but that doesn't mean that we're immune," he said.
India unveiled its 2008/09 budget at the end of February, proposing cuts in taxes and duties as well as raising the threshold for taxable income.
"Now hopefully with this budget, which is by and large an expansionary budget, the outlook looks a little bit more propitious than it did before the budget," Sen said.
MARKET NEWS
Patel Engineering is planning to increase its presence in export markets, especially in the U.S. and Africa and has lined up Rs 4 billion expansion plan.
RCom to issue 17.5 m shares under ESOP .
The State Bank of India becomes only the second bank in the world to have more than 10,000 branches, after China’s ICBC.
Mastek acquires U.S. firm for $29 mln
Software firm Mastek Ltd on Monday announced the acquisition of U.S.-based STG International for $29 million in an all-cash deal.
The acquisition, made through Mastek's U.S. subsidiary, would involve an 85 percent upfront payment, with the remainder based on future earn-outs.
Systems Task Group (STG) provides business software services to the property and casualty insurance market in North America, Mastek said in a statement.
It has about 350 employees and a customer-base which includes more than 35 small and medium American insurance carriers, it added.
In 2007, STG had revenues of $17 million and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $1.73 million.
The acquisition, which will be completed by June 2008, will be funded by internal accruals and bank borrowings, Mastek said. It will contribute to Mastek's financial performance partly in 2007/08 and fully in 2008/09, it added.
This is Mastek's second insurance acquisition in the U.S., after buying Vector Insurance Services LLC for $10 million last July.
Aban Offshore will raise up to Rs 1.94 billion by issue of non-convertible cumulative redeemable preference shares.
The company will raise that amount in one or more tranches on private placement basis.
Analyst Speak's
The Indian investor seems to be tiring out and expects the market to bottom out with Sensex levels close to 13000-12000, says Shashank Khade of Kotak Securities, on NDTV Profit. Today the market seems to be governed by sentiments not fundamentals, he adds. Allocation in the market seems to have moved from equities to commodities that have outperformed, he says.
The global credit crunch and recession in the US do not seem to have impacted the momentum of Indian companies acquiring US-based companies. The first two month of 2008 saw 10 US-bound acquisitions, the majority of which were in the IT sector, lending credence to the fact that adequate liquidity and comfortable valuations have helped Indian companies buck the global trend.
TODAY'S MARKET
MARKET PLUNGED DUE TO UNEXPECTED JOB CUT IN US.
IN INDIAN CONTEXT MARKET BREATH IS NEGATIVE BUT FRESH SHORT POSITION IS BUILDING UP BECAUSE NIFTY DISCOUNT IS INCREASING FROM 17 POINT TO 45.
LEVEL FOR NIFTY 4670-4700-4850-4900.
LONG CAN ASSUME FROM LOWER LEVEL OF 4700 WITH A SL OF 4670 WHICH IS LAST DAY LOW AND SHORT CAN ASSUME FROM 4850 WITH SL OF 4920.
IN LONG ASSUME AUTO AND METAL AND IN SHORT SIDE BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICE,POWER LOOK WEAK.
HAVE NICE TRADING DAY !!!
BY- MR. SAM