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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Sugar Prices & Global Recession

Sugar is affordable this festival season. Marketmen say it will become expensive by next summer when supply could drop.
Sugar companies are certainly betting on it. But given the miasma of global recession, encashing the demand-supply mismatch may not be so easy.

ET helps you join the dots between consumer pessimism and the future of sugar.
Indian sugar prices are steady for now because the government has been pushing mills to sell at least 2 mt each month. With five states going to polls in the next few weeks, the last thing it wants is voters getting ugly on food prices.

Fortuitously for Indian consumers, the collapse in global sugar prices was well-timed with the festival season. The big funds and index traders are rapidly unwinding their long positions, which has led to selling pressure. That has queered the pitch for Indian exports.

All of 2007, sugar was tugged up by the price of ethanol, which itself was linked to crude oil. Now that crude oil is at 2006-levels , the correction in sugar and ethanol prices was inevitable.

At the same time, Brazilians have begun aggressively exporting sugar because their currency—real—has fallen to a three-and-half-year low against the dollar. A weak real has offset the fall in sugar prices. Put together, sugar is bearish for now.

But mills have not lost heart. All forecasts point to a drop in supply in 2009. The world may run short by 5 mt due to a 4% cut in global sugar production in 2009. Bad weather in countries such as Cuba have further put pressure on supply.

In India, the drop in production could be especially dramatic. Farmers have been so upset with tardy payment for cane that they have shifted to other crops. In top producer Maharashtra, sugar production will fall 30% this year. Over all, Indian sugar production could fall 20% in 2008-09 and a further 14% in 2009-10 sugar season. With Indian demand and supply likely to be finely balanced next year and dry trade pipeline, the industry is betting on a price rise.

On the face of it, this decline in production appears to be just what the doctor ordered for sugar mills. But the recovery in bottomlines may not be so quick or so widespread. There are two googlies mills would have to dodge.
One, when farmers grow less cane, mills too crush less.

That strains their capacity utilisation and sales figures. In Uttar Pradesh, where mills have reserved cane area, they can hope to pick up any cane grown within 15-km radius. But in states without cane zoning, the fight for cane could get very bitter indeed next year.

Already mills in Maharashtra are bearing the brunt of decline in cane area. The state government has decided to issue licenses only to factories where sugarcane availability is more than half their crushing capacity for the entire season. Of the 173 mills in the state, at least 20 may have to shut shop this year. Next year this problem could worsen.


The second googly could be dampening consumer demand if the economy slows down. In most middle-class households, the monthly sugar consumption is price insensitive because they rarely buy more than 8-10 kg. So even if prices jump by Rs 5/kg, that means an extra expenditure of Rs 50/month. No one is really bothered.

It is actually the sugar consumed indirectly that could get affected if the world does go into recession. When times get tough, households tend to reduce purchase of expensive processed foods, sauces, icecreams, jams, cold drinks, juices, confectionery and luxury chocolates to offset higher expenses in other areas. Since these are not toppriority foods, their consumption is usually the first to get lopped off.

This in turn could impact the demand for sugar by processed food and beverage companies, who are the single largest purchasers of sugar in India. If sugar becomes more expensive due to a squeeze in supply while demand for end products drops, food companies are likely to rework their sums. Cola companies, where sugar is a significant part of input costs, will be especially keen to negotiate discounts.

The joker in the pack next year would be ethanol. Brazil, the world’s biggest producer, has been scaling up capacity to increase export to the US and EU. In 2009 that could be tough. Exports to the US, Brazil’s main ethanol market abroad, are frozen for now because US ethanol prices have fallen so much that Brazilian ethanol, even with a weaker real, stands no chance.

The slump in US fuel demand means a slump in ethanol demand as well. Brazil’s domestic demand for ethanol was boosted by flex-fuel cars—cars that can run on any mixture of gasoline and ethanol. Brazilian demand for the biofuel rose to 1.6 billion litres per month currently from 550 million litres five years ago. But most flex fuel cars are bought on credit. If there is an economic slowdown , this credit would be affected.

The exchange rate could also impact ethanol output. Some analysts believe that if the real weakens further, it would encourage Brazilian mills to produce sugar for export, rather than ethanol for the domestic market. That could cool global sugar prices.

After years of oversupply, global sugar supply is finally balancing with demand. Any new threat to global production would tilt the balance firmly towards a shortage. That is definitely headline news. However, there is no straight line between high commodity prices and individual corporate profits. As always, the best business strategy will win.

RBI eases ECB access for companies

The government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have eased the norms on overseas borrowing for Indian companies to boost inflows and help corporates raise funds for projects.

The revised rules provide for companies to pay a higher interest of upto 500 bps over the six-month libor on external commercial borrowings (ECBs). Companies can bring in the proceeds immediately and can also use dollar borrowings for rupee expenditure.

The easing of norms comes at a time when a number of Indian companies, who are already in the international loan markets, are finding it difficult to raise funds. The turbulence in global financial markets has impacted this market significantly and with banks reluctant to lend to each other, raising foreign currency funds is going to be tough.

Bankers say that liquidity is limited to the shorter end of the borrowing spectrum with global banks loath to lend for the medium and long term. According to the new rules notified by the RBI late on Wednesday, from now on, ECBs up to $500 million per borrower per financial year would be permitted for rupee expenditure or foreign currency expenditure for permissible end-uses under the automatic route.

The norm of a minimum average maturity period of seven years for ECBs of more than $100 million for rupee capital expenditure by borrowers in the infrastructure sector has been dispensed with.

The relaxation may not result in an immediate inflow of funds, given that overseas credit markets are frozen and spreads over libor have been widening. Roiled by the financial turmoil, banks abroad are reluctant to lend to corporates in emerging markets. They are looking at cutting down or are only maintaining their Indian exposure.

However, the new norms could benefit many AAA and AA rated Indian corporates to access the markets as and when the market eases up.

Telecom companies, who had earlier pitched for allowing the proceeds of ECBs for payment of licence/permit for 3G spectrum have been given that facility. At present, ECB proceeds are required to be parked overseas until actual expenditure takes place.

Now, companies can either keep these funds offshore or keep it with the overseas branches or subsidiaries of Indian banks abroad or to remit these funds to India for credit to their rupee accounts with banks in India until it is used.

Given the tight liquidity conditions in the market, RBI has said that banks have been allowed to pay upto 300 bps over six-month libor on ECBS between three and five years as against 200 bps earlier. For longer-term borrowings, corporates have been allowed to pay as much as 500 bps over six-month libor. Given that six-month libor is ruling at 3.7%, lenders will be allowed to pay out up to 8.7% interest on dollar borrowings.


The central bank also said that it will be keeping a close watch on the unhedged foreign exchange exposures of SMEs. A system of monitoring such unhedged exposures by the banks on a regular basis is being put in place.

Other earlier restrictions including the $500-million limit per company per financial year under the automatic route as well as conditions relating to eligible borrower, recognised lender, end-use, average maturity period, prepayment, refinancing of existing ECB and reporting arrangements remain unchanged.

Seshagiri Rao, finance director, JSW said: "This will benefit corporates as one layer of approval, from RBI, has now been removed. Top-rated companies should be able to roll-over existing liabilities within the enhanced spreads now allowed by RBI." He added that JSW group companies would definitely look at the option of raising foreign loans in the wake of this relaxation.

According to Hemant Mishra, MD and head global markets (India), StanChart, "this is in line with the ministry and the RBI's proactive approach of managing the dollar liquidity shortage in the local market. This step will make it easier for India Inc to tap into the overseas capital market and also helps domestic liquidity in the process. There would be incremental appetite for quality India paper at the right price, once the international liquidity situation gets better."

Usually, the credit markets slow down towards the end of the calendar year. This might be accentuated this time because of the ongoing credit crunch. For the fiscal ended March 31,2008 Indian corporates had made overseas borrowings of $30.95 billion. This is as against borrowings of $25.35 billion in the previous fiscal. In the current fiscal, between April and August, corporates had borrowed $8.12 billion.

Said Robin Banerjee, director (finance) Essar Steel: "This will encourage flow of foreign exchange debt into India since they are cheaper than Indian debt if you don't consider rupee depreciation, which can be appropriately hedged. This is a positive step to build confidence and ensure flow of funds in tight market conditions.

"We are yet to study the details, but at first brush, they appear to be very positive for the industry," said a top Vodafone-Essar official. Said Idea Cellular MD Sanjeev Aga, "While Idea is not affected, this may be a useful step for the sector. However, there are several loose ends in the preparation for the 3G auctions and it would be desirable that these are meticulously addressed instead of rushing through."

Highlights

" All in cost ceilings (libor plus spread plus issue expenses) have been relaxed by the RBI. More corporates can use the ECB window

" $500 Mn for rupee expenditure

" Telecom companies can use the ECB for raising money for license/permit for 3G Spectrum

" Corporates can remit these funds to India for credit to their rupee accounts in India, pending utilisation for permissible end-use.

" Monitoring of unhedged exposures of SMEs being put in places

* Corporates unlikely to benefit in the short term as global banks are still not comfortable in lending.

Q2 Results

Voltamp Transformers has posted a net profit of Rs 27.33 crore for the second quarter ended September 30, a 47.64 per cent rise over the year-ago period.

The firm had clocked a net profit of Rs 18.51 crore in the same quarter last fiscal, Voltamp Transformers said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Net sales rose by 14.78 per cent at Rs 169.96 crore for the quarter under review from Rs 148.07 crore a year ago.

For six months ended September 30, the company reported a net profit of Rs 50.50 crore, a growth of 42.09 per cent over the corresponding year-ago period. It had a net profit of Rs 35.54 crore in the same period last fiscal.

The company's net sales rose to Rs 340.11 crore during six months from Rs 277.34 crore in the year-ago period.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 405.05, down 3.24 per cent on the BSE.

**** Coromandel Fertilisers Q2 net up 71 pc at Rs 181 cr * Fertiliser and chemical manufacturer Coromandel Fertilisers Ltd today said its consolidated net profit for the its September quarter stood at Rs 181 crore, up by 71.56 per cent over the corresponding period a year ago.

The company had a consolidated net profit of Rs 105.5 crore in the same quarter last fiscal, Coromandel Fertilisers Ltd said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Its consolidated total income for the quarter rose to Rs 3,404.7 crore from Rs 1,802.7 crore for the year-ago period.

While net profit for the six months ended September 30, 2008 stood at Rs 374.8 crore, against Rs 131.2 crore for the same period last fiscal.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 132.20, up 5.30 per cent in afternoon trade on the BSE.

Yes Bank Q2 net up 40 pc at Rs 64 cr * Private sector lender Yes Bank today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 grew by 40.50 per cent at Rs 63.62 crore over the corresponding quarter last fiscal.

The bank registered a net profit of Rs 45.28 crore in the second quarter of FY'08, Yes Bank said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Total income for the quarter under review rose to Rs 569.93 crore from Rs 379.38 crore in the year-ago period.

"In the recent market environment, Yes Bank has preserved to ensure highest credit quality of assets while sustaining income and growth objectives," Yes Bank Managing Director and CEO Rana Kapoor said.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 80.05, 0.44 per cent in afternoon trade on the BSE.

*** Blue Dart Express Q2 net dips 22 pc at Rs 13 cr * Courier and logistics major Blue Dart Express today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 declined 22.08 per cent at Rs 13.58 crore over corresponding period last fiscal.

The firm registered a net profit of Rs 17.43 crore in the second quarter of FY'08, Blue Dart Express said in a filing with the BSE.

The company's net sales rose to Rs 262.84 crore in the quarter from Rs 207.30 crore in the same period a year ago.

For the six months ended September 30, Blue Dart Express reported a net profit of Rs 64.95 crore against Rs 50.99 crore in the corresponding period a year ago. Net sales of the firm rose to Rs 747.13 crore this fiscal from Rs 576.44 crore in the same period last year.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 520, down 5.45 per cent in afternoon trade on the BSE.

Kirloskar Oil Q2 net dips 18 pc at Rs 27.3 cr * Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 declined 18.75 per cent at Rs 27.3 crore over the corresponding period a year ago. The company had clocked a net profit of Rs 33.6 crore in the same quarter last fiscal, Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Net sales for the quarter under review rose to Rs 592 crore from Rs 543.5 crore for the corresponding period last fiscal.

For the six months ended September 30, 2008, the company posted a net profit of Rs 56.8 crore against a net profit of Rs 51 crore for the same period last year.

The company's net sales rose to Rs 1,157.8 crore for the reviewed period from Rs 1,035.1 crore for the same period last fiscal. Shares of the company were trading at Rs 55.50, down 1.16 per cent in afternoon trade on the BSE.

**** Sona Koyo Q2 net loss at Rs 7.32 cr * Steering gears and drive line components maker Sona Koyo Steering Systems today said its net loss for second quarter ended September 30 stood at Rs 7.32 crore, against a net profit of Rs 8.79 crore in the same period a year ago.

The firm's total income for the quarter under review rose to Rs 180.27 crore from Rs 166.30 crore in the second quarter of the previous fiscal, Sona Koyo Steering Systems Ltd said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

For the six months ended September 30, the firm announced a net loss of Rs 8.96 crore, while net profit in the same period last fiscal stood at Rs 16.77 crore.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 10.50, up 4.17 per cent on the BSE.

Bajaj Electricals Q2 net dips 7 pc at Rs 12 cr * Bajaj Electricals today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 declined by 7.43 per cent at Rs 12.2 crore over the corresponding period last fiscal. The company had clocked a net profit of Rs 13.18 crore in the second quarter of fiscal 2008, Bajaj Electricals said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Net sales of the firm rose to Rs 378.57 crore in the quarter from Rs 304.28 crore in the same period a year ago.

For the six months ended September 30, the firm reported a net profit of Rs 22.22 crore, against Rs 20.96 crore in the corresponding period a year ago.

Bajaj Electricals' net sales rose to Rs 695.91 crore in the quarter under review from Rs 556.41 crore in the same period last year.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 338.15, down 1.33 per cent in afternoon trade on the BSE.

*** Nippon Batteries Q2 net down 12 pc at Rs 4 cr * Nippon Batteries today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 dipped by 11.95 per cent at Rs 3.83 crore over the corresponding quarter last fiscal.

The company had a net profit of Rs 4.35 crore in the second quarter FY'08, Nippon Batteries said in a filing with the BSE.

Total income for the quarter under review rose to Rs 73.09 crore from Rs 71.10 crore in the same period last year.

For the six months ended September 30, the company reported a net profit of Rs 7.55 crore, against Rs 8.56 crore in the corresponding period a year ago.

The firm's total income rose to Rs 143.10 crore in the second quarter from Rs 144.16 crore in the same period a year ago.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 310, up 1.64 per cent in afternoon trade on the BSE.

Century Textiles Q2 net dips 57 pc at Rs 28 cr * B K Birla Group-controlled Century Textiles & Industries today said its net profit for second quarter ended September 30 declined 56.98 per cent at Rs 28.55 crore over the same period a year ago. The firm had a net profit of Rs 66.37 crore for Q2 of fiscal 2008, Century Textiles said in a filing with the BSE.

Its total income rose to Rs 872.11 crore in Q2 of current fiscal from Rs 784.95 crore in the same period last year.

For the six months ended September 30, Century Textiles reported a net profit of Rs 91.05 crore. It had clocked a net profit of Rs 170.48 in the same period last fiscal, and its total income rose to Rs 1,825.93 crore in the six-month period from Rs 1,631.92 crore in the same period in the last fiscal.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 205.50, down 0.92 per cent on the BSE.

*** Tourism Finance Corp Q2 net at Rs 5 cr * Tourism Finance Corporation of India today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 stood at Rs 4.90 crore, clocking more than a three-fold jump from the corresponding period year ago.

The company had a net profit of Rs 1.36 crore in Q2 of fiscal 2008, TFCI informed BSE.

Income from operations rose to Rs 18.24 crore in the quarter under review from Rs 12.52 crore in the same period a year ago.

For the six months ended September 30, the company posted a net profit of Rs 10.11 crore against Rs 2.96 crore in the corresponding period a year ago.

Income from operations rose to Rs 32.50 crore in the quarter under review from Rs 25.47 crore last year.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 13.65, down 2.15 per cent in the afternoon trade on the BSE.

Bajaj Auto Finance Q2 net up 21 pc at Rs 4 cr * Consumer finance company Bajaj Auto Finance today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 rose by 20.89 per cent at Rs 4.57 crore over the corresponding period a year ago. The company clocked a net profit of Rs 3.78 crore for second quarter FY'08, Bajaj Auto Finance said in a filing with the BSE.

Total income for the quarter rose to Rs 136.82 crore from Rs 123.10 crore in the same period a year ago.

For the six months ended September 30, Bajaj Auto Finance reported a net profit of Rs 7.58 crore against Rs 7.89 crore in the same period last year.

Total income rose to Rs 264.62 crore in the second quarter this fiscal from Rs 226.90 crore a year ago.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 70.30, down 2.02 per cent on the BSE.

*** GNFC Q2 net dips 34 pc at Rs 79 cr * Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 dipped by 34.45 per cent at Rs 79.04 crore over the corresponding period a year ago.

The company posted a net profit of Rs 120.58 crore in Q2 of last fiscal, GNFC said in a filing with the BSE.

Net sales of the company rose to Rs 868.13 crore in the quarter under review, from Rs 1,141.18 crore in the same period a year ago.

For the six months ended September 30, the firm reported a net profit of Rs 107.31 crore against Rs 196.37 crore in the same period last fiscal.

Net sales of the company rose to Rs 1,405.96 crore from Rs 1714.83 crore in the same period a year ago.

Shares of the company were trading at Rs 54.55 crore, down 2.76 per cent on the BSE.

Shalimar Paints Q2 net up 1 pc at Rs 2 cr * Shalimar Paints today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 rose 0.86 per cent at Rs 2.33 crore over the corresponding period a year ago. The company had a net profit of Rs 2.31 crore in Q2 of fiscal 2008, Shalimar Paints said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Net sales of the company rose to Rs 101.47 crore for the quarter under review from Rs 80.51 crore in the same period last fiscal.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 183.50,down 8.11 per cent on the BSE.

**** Jindal Saw Q2 net up 11 pc at Rs 100 cr * Jindal Saw today said its net profit for the second quarter ended September 30 grew by 11.11 per cent at Rs 100.08 crore over the corresponding period a year ago.

The firm had a net profit of Rs 90.07 crore in Q2 of last fiscal, Jindal Saw said in a filing with the BSE.

Total income of the firm rose to Rs 1,488.68 crore for the quarter under review from Rs 1,430.53 crore in the same period a year ago.

For the six months ended September 30, Jindal Saw posted a net profit of Rs 285.68 crore, a 17.86 per cent growth over the corresponding year-ago period. The company had clocked a net profit of Rs 242.37 crore in the same period last year.

Jindal Saw's total income decreased to Rs 3,463.33 crore during the six-month period from Rs 3,989.79 crore in the year-ago period.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 355.45, down 3.08 per cent on the BSE.

Bajaj Finserv Q2 net at Rs 12 cr * Bajaj Group financial services arm Bajaj Finserv today posted a consolidated net loss of Rs 11.87 crore for the second quarter ended September 30, while it had a net profit of Rs 47.73 crore in the corresponding quarter last fiscal.

Total income of the company rose to Rs 92.37 crore in the quarter under review from Rs 84.11 crore in the same period a year ago, Bajaj Finserv informed the Bombay Stock Exchange.

On a standalone basis, it posted a net profit of Rs 14.23 crore for the quarter ended September 30, while it clocked a net profit of Rs 16.6 crore in the same period a year ago.

Bajaj Finserv has significant presence in the insurance business through its 74 per cent holding in Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance, a 74 per cent holding in Bajaj Allianz General Insurance, and in retail financing through its 40.53 per cent holding in Bajaj Auto Finance.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 150, down 0.40 per cent on the BSE.

*** Neyveli Lignite Corp Q2 net dips 18 pc at Rs 188 cr * State-run Neyveli Lignite Corp today said its net profit for the second quarter dipped 18.46 per cent at Rs 188.39 crore over the corresponding period last fiscal.

The company posted a net profit of Rs 231.04 crore in the Q2 of FY 2008, Neyveli Lignite said in a filing with the BSE.

Its total income rose to Rs 818.31 crore for the September quarter from Rs 882.08 crore in the same period in FY 2008 .

For the six months ended September 30, the company has a net profit of Rs 474.22 crore, against Rs 512.41 crore in the corresponding year-ago period.

Total income rose to Rs 2,055.93 crore in the Q2 ended September 30 from Rs 1,808.01 crore in the year-ago period.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 62.50, down 2.50 per cent on the BSE.

* Hinduja Foundries, one of the largest suppliers of castings to automobile makers, today said its net profit for second quarter ended September 30 declined by 77.13 per cent at Rs 1.07 crore over the corresponding period a year ago. The company had a net profit of Rs 4.68 crore for the same quarter last fiscal, Hinduja Foundries Ltd said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Its net income rose to Rs 119.85 crore for Q2 of current fiscal from Rs 110.51 crore for the same quarter last year.

For the six months ended September 30, 2008, it posted a net profit of Rs 5.65 crore, while the company had a net profit of Rs 8.77 crore for the same quarter last fiscal.

Its net income rose to Rs 245.05 crore for the reviewed period from Rs 215.05 for the corresponding period last year.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 101.20, down 4.53 per cent on the BSE.

**** Greenply Industries Q2 net at Rs 11.14 cr * Plywood and laminate products maker Greenply Industries today posted a marginal growth in its net profit at Rs 11.44 crore for the second quarter ended September 30 over the corresponding period a year ago.

The company had a net profit of Rs 11.18 crore for the same quarter last fiscal, Greenply Industries Ltd said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Its net income rose to Rs 236.68 crore for the reviewed period from 158.88 crore for the year-ago period.

For the six months ended September 30, 2008, it posted a net profit of Rs 18.40 crore, while it had a net profit of Rs 2025 crore in the same period last fiscal.

Shares of the company closed at Rs 73.60, down 5.64 per cent on the BSE.