IL&FS Investsmart to recommend dividend, Board meeting on 29 April 2008
Nuway Organic Naturals India to convene EGM, On 14 April 2008
Visagar Polytex opens new showroom ,At Shree Dungargarh, Bikaner, Rajasthan
Denison Hydraulics India to announce financial results ,Board meeting on 30 April 2008
Hindustan Zinc announces exploration success
KRBL appoints whole time director
Akruti City to announce Q4 results
Mro Tek to announce financial results
Bal Pharma postpones board meeting
Aksh Optifibre to make preferential issue
Stone India to announce financial results
Religare Finvest announces strategic tie-up with Kumar Motors
IFCI to announce financial results
Kamdhenu Ispat allots warrants
Rolta India appoints director
Jindal Steel & Power completes laying down of 400 KVA transmission line from power plant of Jindal Power
GMR Energy acquires 5% stake in Homeland Mining and Energy
SRF to consider buy back of shares
Polaris Software to consider buy back of shares
Manali Petrochemical recommends dividend
Tata Sponge Iron to announce financial results
Sonata Software recommends final dividend
IQMS Software to add 20 additional resources to its KPO services
HB Portfolio to announce financial results
IQMS Software to convene board meeting
Hinduja Ventures to announce financial results
AK Capital Services to announce financial results
India Infoline grants employee stock options
VST Industries recommends dividend
Nagarjuna Agri Tech to convene EGM
Accentia Technologies receives US$ 4.5 million order for its health care receivables management services
Saboo Sodium Chloro to convene board meeting
SRF to announce financial results Wendt India to recommend dividend
CMC recommends dividend
Hon'ble High Court sanctions scheme of amalgamation of Mcleod Russel
ICICI Bank allots equity shares
Adarsh Plant Protect to announce financial results
Hon'ble High Court approves scheme of amalgamation of Shilpa Medicare
Wheels India declares second interim dividend
Comp U Learn Tech India to allot equity shares & warrants
Electrotherm India to raise funds
Shakti Press to announce Q4 results
Hanung Toys & Textiles signs MOU with Chinese company
Kaashyap Technologies enters into MOU with Oceansoft Information System
Alchemist Realty to increase authorized capital
Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals to announce financial results
Lincoln Pharmaceuticals to announce financial result
S.Kumars Nationwide allots equity shares
Tech Mahindra scales up its presence in Chennai
Industrial Development Bank of India to announce financial results
Bhuwalka Steel Industries acquires equity shares of Benaka Sponge Iron
Parsvnath Developers launches Parsvnath Premium
Cipla to announce Q4 results
Provogue India to increase authorised capital
Sundaram Finance to consider interim dividend
Parsvnath Developers signs agreement with two Saffron Group funds
Reem Finance selects Nucleus Software Exports' flagship product
Panasonic Carbon India Company to announce financial results
R Systems International to announce financial results
Stewarts & Lloyds of India to announce financial results
Indiabulls Financial Services to announce financial results
Riba Textiles to convene board meeting
Punj Lloyd allots equity shares
Phoenix Mills to announce Q4 results
Petronet LNG recommends dividend
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Inflation backs off 3-yr peak, risks remain
Indian inflation backed off three-year peaks in early April, but many analysts expect it to hold at elevated levels in coming weeks, prompting the central bank to tighten cash conditions.
The wholesale price index rose 7.14 percent in the 12 months to April 5, slightly less than expected and falling from the previous week's rate of 7.41 percent, which was the highest since November 2004.
"The lower-than-expected inflation reading is good news," said Sonal Varma, an economist at Lehman Brothers in Mumbai.
"However, we expect inflation to remain above 7 percent in the coming weeks as risks remain skewed firmly to the upside," Varma said.
"With fiscal and trade measures already in place to tackle inflation, we expect the central bank to keep repo and reverse repo rates unchanged in the April policy because of slowing growth," she said.
"But measures to tighten liquidity cannot be ruled out."
The central bank's next scheduled policy review is on April 29.
Thursday's data showed prices of food articles and metals rising most strongly.
Wholesale inflation has shot up since late last year, more than doubling since November as India, like other countries, felt the impact of soaring oil and food prices.
Policy-makers with state and general elections due this year and next have responded with a flurry of duty cuts and export bans to try to ease price pressures.
Expectations the central bank might also take imminent action helped push the yield on 10-year government bonds to a nine-month high of 8.12 percent on Thursday.
Federal and state bond supplies due next week also contributed the rise in yields, which dipped back to 8.10 percent by 0950 GMT.
The stock market was up 1.5 percent, bolstered mainly by gains in overseas markets.
CENTRAL BANK
The repo rate, through which the central bank lends cash to banks, has remained unchanged for the past year at 7.75 percent.
The cash reserve ratio, which is the proportion of cash that banks have to keep with the central bank, was last raised in November to 7.50 percent.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy said this week that inflation was at unacceptable levels and that inflation pressures were rising faster than anticipated, in part due to sharply higher world food prices.
Inflation struck its three-year high of 7.41 percent at the end of the 2007/08 fiscal year, well above the central bank's comfort zone.
The authority had said it wanted to keep inflation at close to 5 percent by the end of that fiscal year.
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said on Wednesday that the government would not hesitate to take tough measures against anyone caught hoarding commodities, and the central bank would take more monetary steps soon to tame inflation.
The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is published weekly.
The wholesale price index rose 7.14 percent in the 12 months to April 5, slightly less than expected and falling from the previous week's rate of 7.41 percent, which was the highest since November 2004.
"The lower-than-expected inflation reading is good news," said Sonal Varma, an economist at Lehman Brothers in Mumbai.
"However, we expect inflation to remain above 7 percent in the coming weeks as risks remain skewed firmly to the upside," Varma said.
"With fiscal and trade measures already in place to tackle inflation, we expect the central bank to keep repo and reverse repo rates unchanged in the April policy because of slowing growth," she said.
"But measures to tighten liquidity cannot be ruled out."
The central bank's next scheduled policy review is on April 29.
Thursday's data showed prices of food articles and metals rising most strongly.
Wholesale inflation has shot up since late last year, more than doubling since November as India, like other countries, felt the impact of soaring oil and food prices.
Policy-makers with state and general elections due this year and next have responded with a flurry of duty cuts and export bans to try to ease price pressures.
Expectations the central bank might also take imminent action helped push the yield on 10-year government bonds to a nine-month high of 8.12 percent on Thursday.
Federal and state bond supplies due next week also contributed the rise in yields, which dipped back to 8.10 percent by 0950 GMT.
The stock market was up 1.5 percent, bolstered mainly by gains in overseas markets.
CENTRAL BANK
The repo rate, through which the central bank lends cash to banks, has remained unchanged for the past year at 7.75 percent.
The cash reserve ratio, which is the proportion of cash that banks have to keep with the central bank, was last raised in November to 7.50 percent.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy said this week that inflation was at unacceptable levels and that inflation pressures were rising faster than anticipated, in part due to sharply higher world food prices.
Inflation struck its three-year high of 7.41 percent at the end of the 2007/08 fiscal year, well above the central bank's comfort zone.
The authority had said it wanted to keep inflation at close to 5 percent by the end of that fiscal year.
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said on Wednesday that the government would not hesitate to take tough measures against anyone caught hoarding commodities, and the central bank would take more monetary steps soon to tame inflation.
The wholesale price index is more closely watched than the consumer price index, which is published monthly, because it covers a higher number of products and is published weekly.
MARKET UPDATES
- Varun has a major 81% share of the total LPG tonnage (on DWT basis) being transported under Indian flag. VSL with a LPG carrier fleet of 12 is the largest in India in terms of both fleet size and cargo carrying capacity of 351621 dwt and is the second largest global player in the mid-size fully refrigerated LPG carrier fleet with a 14.4% market share on cum basis. VSL has allocated USD 400 million capex for acquisitions of additional vessels and plans to acquire through re-sale to take advantage of strong freight rates. The company has more focus towards high technology offshore vessel to capture the boom in the sector.
- State Bank (Q, N,C,F)* of India and Australia`s Macquarie plan to jointly raise a USD 2 billion fund to invest in infrastructure projects in India.
- Gujarat Industries Power Company (GIPCL) plans to set up a 500 mw lignite-based power plant in Surat.
- Power ministry gives nod to transfer NTPC projects to BHEL.
- Inflation for week-ended April 5 has come out at 7.14% versus 7.41% the previous week, reports CNBC-TV18. CNBC-TV18 Poll had expected it at 7.3%.
Gold hits $950 an ounce after strong US consumer inflation data
Gold futures shot up immediately after the release of the CPI numbers from US, increasing the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Inflation rose in March, the Labor Department reported Wednesday, as energy and food costs gained. After virtually no change in February, the consumer price index in March rose 0.3%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in March -- after no growth in the prior month.The US dollar once again headed towards the historical low levels versus the Euro after poor housing data. The starts fell 11.9% in March to a seasonally adjusted 947,000 annualized units, lowest level of starts since March 1991. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, fell 5.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 927,000. This is the lowest level of permits since April 1991.Putting additional pressure on the greenback was the higher inflation numbers in Euro Zone. March euro-zone consumer inflation stood at an annual rate of 3.6%.MCX gold futures for the June contract hit the high of Rs 12236 per 10 grams, up Rs 256. it was recently seen quoting at Rs 12195 up Rs 204. The resistance is at 12270 and 12310 levels. The US oil inventories will set the further tone of the prices. Most active June contract on NYMEX is trading up $15.2 at $947.2 per ounce. The upside target is at 954 levels.
Leading Indicators in U.S. Probably Rose in March on Fed Action
The index of leading U.S. economic indicators probably rose in March as cash poured into the banking system and the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate, economists said before a report today.
The Conference Board's gauge increased 0.1 percent, the first gain in six months, after falling 0.3 percent in February, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 54 economists. The measure points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
The improvement is a tentative signal that the economy, after deteriorating in the first six months of 2008, may not weaken further in the second half of the year. The report would indicate the Fed's rate reductions and efforts to ease the credit crisis may help mitigate the damage from the slump in subprime lending.
``A rise in the money supply should have cushioned the blow from some of the other components of the index,'' said Aaron Smith, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. The report points toward economic ``weakness that is mild in nature.''
The New York-based Conference Board, a private research group, is scheduled to issue the report at 10 a.m. Survey estimates ranged from a decline of 0.3 percent to a 0.4 percent gain.
Also at 10 a.m., the Philadelphia Fed will release its regional manufacturing gauge. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News project the index will rise to minus 15 from minus 17.4 in March, signaling a slower pace of contraction. A similar report from the New York Fed earlier this week unexpectedly showed a return to growth.
Factory Improvement
The manufacturing components of the leading index probably contributed to the projected gain in March. The factory workweek rose by 6 minutes to 41.3 hours last month, according to Labor Department figures, and the Institute for Supply Management's measure of supplier deliveries also improved.
Seven of the 10 economic indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, supplier delivery times and factory hours.
The Conference Board estimates the remaining three -- new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital equipment and the money supply.
The financial components helped push the leading index higher. The biggest contributor was probably the money supply as investors poured the cash from sales of stocks and securities such as subprime-mortgage instruments into money-market funds.
Fed Action
As credit markets seized up, the Fed on March 16 gave all primary dealers in U.S. government bonds the same access to loans formerly reserved only for banks. The central bank now auctions as much as $100 billion in funds a month, making it easier to liquidate some hard-to-sell assets.
The yield curve, or the differential between the Fed's benchmark rate and the yield on the Treasury's 10-year note, also widened last month. The central bank dropped its target rate by three-quarters of a point to 2.25 percent on March 18, leading to a steeper curve.
The yield differential turned positive for the first time in February after 19 months of negative readings that subtracted from the leading index. The Fed has cut its benchmark rate by 3 percentage points since September, with two-thirds of reduction coming in the first three months of this year.
A Labor Department report today, due at 8:30 a.m., is projected to show initial jobless claims rose last week to 375,000 from 357,000 the prior week, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
More Firings
Initial jobless claims, consumer expectations about the economy and building permits are among the components projected to detract from the leading index.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month forecast the economy will not grow at all in the first half of the year. A majority of those polled projected the U.S. is, or will be, in a recession.
The Fed yesterday said economic growth slowed in nine of 12 districts since February, hurt by ``anemic'' real estate markets and a slowdown in consumer spending, according to its regional business survey known as the Beige Book.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-biggest U.S. bank, yesterday reported a 50 percent drop in first-quarter profit on $5.1 billion of writedowns and provisions.
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, said on a conference call with reporters that the credit-market crisis is more than halfway finished as financial firms reduce leverage, and may be as much as 80 percent over.
``That side is working itself out,'' Dimon said. ``That doesn't mean the recession won't get worse or better.''
The Conference Board's gauge increased 0.1 percent, the first gain in six months, after falling 0.3 percent in February, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 54 economists. The measure points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
The improvement is a tentative signal that the economy, after deteriorating in the first six months of 2008, may not weaken further in the second half of the year. The report would indicate the Fed's rate reductions and efforts to ease the credit crisis may help mitigate the damage from the slump in subprime lending.
``A rise in the money supply should have cushioned the blow from some of the other components of the index,'' said Aaron Smith, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. The report points toward economic ``weakness that is mild in nature.''
The New York-based Conference Board, a private research group, is scheduled to issue the report at 10 a.m. Survey estimates ranged from a decline of 0.3 percent to a 0.4 percent gain.
Also at 10 a.m., the Philadelphia Fed will release its regional manufacturing gauge. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News project the index will rise to minus 15 from minus 17.4 in March, signaling a slower pace of contraction. A similar report from the New York Fed earlier this week unexpectedly showed a return to growth.
Factory Improvement
The manufacturing components of the leading index probably contributed to the projected gain in March. The factory workweek rose by 6 minutes to 41.3 hours last month, according to Labor Department figures, and the Institute for Supply Management's measure of supplier deliveries also improved.
Seven of the 10 economic indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, supplier delivery times and factory hours.
The Conference Board estimates the remaining three -- new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital equipment and the money supply.
The financial components helped push the leading index higher. The biggest contributor was probably the money supply as investors poured the cash from sales of stocks and securities such as subprime-mortgage instruments into money-market funds.
Fed Action
As credit markets seized up, the Fed on March 16 gave all primary dealers in U.S. government bonds the same access to loans formerly reserved only for banks. The central bank now auctions as much as $100 billion in funds a month, making it easier to liquidate some hard-to-sell assets.
The yield curve, or the differential between the Fed's benchmark rate and the yield on the Treasury's 10-year note, also widened last month. The central bank dropped its target rate by three-quarters of a point to 2.25 percent on March 18, leading to a steeper curve.
The yield differential turned positive for the first time in February after 19 months of negative readings that subtracted from the leading index. The Fed has cut its benchmark rate by 3 percentage points since September, with two-thirds of reduction coming in the first three months of this year.
A Labor Department report today, due at 8:30 a.m., is projected to show initial jobless claims rose last week to 375,000 from 357,000 the prior week, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
More Firings
Initial jobless claims, consumer expectations about the economy and building permits are among the components projected to detract from the leading index.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month forecast the economy will not grow at all in the first half of the year. A majority of those polled projected the U.S. is, or will be, in a recession.
The Fed yesterday said economic growth slowed in nine of 12 districts since February, hurt by ``anemic'' real estate markets and a slowdown in consumer spending, according to its regional business survey known as the Beige Book.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-biggest U.S. bank, yesterday reported a 50 percent drop in first-quarter profit on $5.1 billion of writedowns and provisions.
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, said on a conference call with reporters that the credit-market crisis is more than halfway finished as financial firms reduce leverage, and may be as much as 80 percent over.
``That side is working itself out,'' Dimon said. ``That doesn't mean the recession won't get worse or better.''
MARKET PREDICTION
GLOBAL MARKETS ARE ON FIRE TODAY..........
NIFTY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME STEP INITIALLY...
LEVELS OF NIFTY 4820-4890-4950-5000
GO SHORT FROM HIGHER LEVEL IF NIFTY DOESNOT SUSTAIN ABOVE 5000 .
BUY FROM 4820 LEVEL IF MARKET DIPS WITH S L 4790.
PUT CALL RATIO IS 1.21.
SECTORS TO BE WATCH
ENERGY SPACE LOOKS STRONG AND SCRIPS TO BE LOOKED FORWARD ARE NTPC,POWERGRID,R POWER.
OIL& GAS EXPLORATION SPACE SHOWING STRENGTH AND SCRIPS TO BE TRACKED ARE CAIRN,RPL,MRPL,SELAN, HINDOILEXPLORATION.
IT STOCK ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THE RALLY AFTER INFY GOOD GUIDENCE.
IF MARKET DOES NOT SUSTAIN ABOVE 5000 GO SHORT IN BANK.
HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY....
-MR. SAM
NIFTY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME STEP INITIALLY...
LEVELS OF NIFTY 4820-4890-4950-5000
GO SHORT FROM HIGHER LEVEL IF NIFTY DOESNOT SUSTAIN ABOVE 5000 .
BUY FROM 4820 LEVEL IF MARKET DIPS WITH S L 4790.
PUT CALL RATIO IS 1.21.
SECTORS TO BE WATCH
ENERGY SPACE LOOKS STRONG AND SCRIPS TO BE LOOKED FORWARD ARE NTPC,POWERGRID,R POWER.
OIL& GAS EXPLORATION SPACE SHOWING STRENGTH AND SCRIPS TO BE TRACKED ARE CAIRN,RPL,MRPL,SELAN, HINDOILEXPLORATION.
IT STOCK ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THE RALLY AFTER INFY GOOD GUIDENCE.
IF MARKET DOES NOT SUSTAIN ABOVE 5000 GO SHORT IN BANK.
HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY....
-MR. SAM
India forecasts near-normal monsoon rains in 2008
India's monsoon rains are likely to be near normal this year, the government forecast on Wednesday, promising robust harvests which could bolster growth in Asia's third-largest economy and soothe global food worries.
This year, the rains will be more closely watched than ever, with global commodity markets watchful for any glitch in wheat or rice supplies that could put more strain on low stocks.
Fast rising food prices, largely driven by global factors, have contributed to building price pressures around the world and this year have become a social issue for nations facing shortages of staple foods, most notably rice.
New Delhi is battling its highest inflation in three years, and food prices have been a major driver.
"Good monsoon means good growth. Agriculture production will go up, prices will fall. There will be more water, which means increase in productivity. Farm income will go up," Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal told reporters.
Farm output has lagged growth in the economy in recent years, and rises and falls depending on the strength of the monsoon rains, which provide most of the water for crop growth from June to September.
Sibal said rainfall would be 99 percent of the long-term average and the government would regard the monsoon as near normal if rainfall was 96-104 percent of that average.
The government will update its forecast in June.
With only 40 percent of India's cultivatable land irrigated, the monsoon is an important influence on rural output and farm incomes. About two-thirds of India's people and a fifth of its economy dependent on agriculture.
Good rains mean sufficient soil moisture for crops, mainly wheat and oilseeds, sown in the winter and harvested from March.
India had to import millions of tonnes of wheat in 2006, the first overseas purchases for six years, after a poor harvest, and went back to global markets again last year, contributing to a spike in world prices.
Last year's wheat output was around 75 million tonnes, helped by good rains and India's farm minister has said he expects a similar harvest this year.
OFF THE MARK
The government's forecasts have often been off the mark in the past and Sibal said the forecast had a 5 percent margin of error.
Last year, the monsoon exceeded the average by 5 percent, despite initial forecasts for a 5 percent shortfall.
"The jury is still out on how monsoons will finally pan out, but if we do get near-normal monsoons, then it is good news both from the inflation and growth perspective," said Sonal Varma, economist at Lehman Brothers in Mumbai.
Rising food prices have become a hot political issue in India and a real headache for a government which must face the electorate at national polls within the next 12 months and will be tested by a series of local elections this year.
Analysts say the distribution of rainfall in the country of more than a billion people was a critical factor in determining the impact on farm output.
"More important than the numbers, the spread and distribution are key elements here," said Amol Tilak, research analyst at Kotak Commodity Services Ltd in Mumbai.
"We can expect an increase in acreage in oilseeds primarily due to the fact that the Indian farmer has made a huge profit. We can expect acreage under cotton to stagnate, slight improvement in groundnut and a drop in acreage under sugarcane cultivation," he said.
This year, the rains will be more closely watched than ever, with global commodity markets watchful for any glitch in wheat or rice supplies that could put more strain on low stocks.
Fast rising food prices, largely driven by global factors, have contributed to building price pressures around the world and this year have become a social issue for nations facing shortages of staple foods, most notably rice.
New Delhi is battling its highest inflation in three years, and food prices have been a major driver.
"Good monsoon means good growth. Agriculture production will go up, prices will fall. There will be more water, which means increase in productivity. Farm income will go up," Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal told reporters.
Farm output has lagged growth in the economy in recent years, and rises and falls depending on the strength of the monsoon rains, which provide most of the water for crop growth from June to September.
Sibal said rainfall would be 99 percent of the long-term average and the government would regard the monsoon as near normal if rainfall was 96-104 percent of that average.
The government will update its forecast in June.
With only 40 percent of India's cultivatable land irrigated, the monsoon is an important influence on rural output and farm incomes. About two-thirds of India's people and a fifth of its economy dependent on agriculture.
Good rains mean sufficient soil moisture for crops, mainly wheat and oilseeds, sown in the winter and harvested from March.
India had to import millions of tonnes of wheat in 2006, the first overseas purchases for six years, after a poor harvest, and went back to global markets again last year, contributing to a spike in world prices.
Last year's wheat output was around 75 million tonnes, helped by good rains and India's farm minister has said he expects a similar harvest this year.
OFF THE MARK
The government's forecasts have often been off the mark in the past and Sibal said the forecast had a 5 percent margin of error.
Last year, the monsoon exceeded the average by 5 percent, despite initial forecasts for a 5 percent shortfall.
"The jury is still out on how monsoons will finally pan out, but if we do get near-normal monsoons, then it is good news both from the inflation and growth perspective," said Sonal Varma, economist at Lehman Brothers in Mumbai.
Rising food prices have become a hot political issue in India and a real headache for a government which must face the electorate at national polls within the next 12 months and will be tested by a series of local elections this year.
Analysts say the distribution of rainfall in the country of more than a billion people was a critical factor in determining the impact on farm output.
"More important than the numbers, the spread and distribution are key elements here," said Amol Tilak, research analyst at Kotak Commodity Services Ltd in Mumbai.
"We can expect an increase in acreage in oilseeds primarily due to the fact that the Indian farmer has made a huge profit. We can expect acreage under cotton to stagnate, slight improvement in groundnut and a drop in acreage under sugarcane cultivation," he said.
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