GLOBAL MARKET IS IN POSITIVE NOTE TODAY.
NIFTY WILL BE HOVERING BETWEEN 4500-4800.
TOTAL MARKET OI IS 68 K CR AND PUT CALL RATIO AGAIN INCHED UP TO 1.65% FROM 1.59%.
TODAYS LEVEL
IF NIFTY HOLD 4700 CLOSE YOUR SHORT POSITION OTHERWISE GO SHORT WITH SL OF 4730.
FOR FRESH SHORT IT WILL PRUDENT TO WATCH @4800 LEVEL.
IF NIFTY CROSSES 4800 THEN WE CAN ASSUME FESH LONG OTHER WISE WE CAN ASSUME SHORT WITH SL OF 4800.
HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY ..
-MR SAM
Friday, June 06, 2008
PM asks colleagues to cut down on wasteful expenditure
In a bid to dispel any misgivings in the common man’s mind about the government maintaining high expenditure levels while the ‘aam aadmi’ faces increasing pressure on their cash flows due to the fuel price hike, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has asked his council of ministers and officers to voluntarily cut down on any ‘wasteful expenditure’ and refrain from foreign travel unless absolutely necessary, as economic measures in the face of rising oil prices.
While the PM has asked the Cabinet Secretary KM Chandrashekhar to rigorously scrutinise all foreign as well as local travel proposals to trim down on government expenses on quarterly basis, the finance ministry has come out with elaborate guidelines to ‘ensure fiscal discipline’ amongst ministries and departments. Departments have been asked to refrain from holding conferences in five star hotels, while babus have to switch to low-cost airlines for official travel.
This is the first time when such guidelines have been issued within two months of the Budget being passed. Such measures are usually taken in the third quarter of the year when expenditures of government ministries are reviewed and revised estimates drawn up.
Even though it is an election year when government is at its generous best, no new schemes would be announced apart from what has been promised in the Budget. The guidelines also said there will be no additional expenditure over and above the prescribed budgets for existing schemes and no changes in any schemes will be permitted.
Urging his colleagues to observe austerity and expecting full support from them, the PM in his letter said that spiraling oil prices have imposed a huge burden on the financial resources of the country and as some of this load is borne by the public, it is the “moral duty” of the government to cut down on all unwanted expenditure in its establishments.
“We need to explain to the people the constraints and reasons that have compelled the government to introduce these measures. Simultaneously, however, it is equally necessary for us to introduce the utmost Economy in our own administrations and establishments. It cannot be denied that there is substantial scope to reduce expenditure on travel and administration,” Singh wrote.
“I am, therefore, writing to ask you to severely curtail expenditure on air travel, particularly foreign travel, except in cases where it is deemed to be absolutely necessary. This Economy may be made applicable immediately for your own self and also for all senior functionaries in your Ministry,” Singh wrote. This is not the first time the PM has written such a letter. He had written a similar letter couple of years back.
Reiterating the PM’s concerns, Expenditure Secretary Sushma Nath said, “There is tremendous pressure on government’s resources due to food and fertiliser subsidies, NREGA, rising oil prices, leading to the need for Economy and rationalisation of expenditure.”
While the PM has asked the Cabinet Secretary KM Chandrashekhar to rigorously scrutinise all foreign as well as local travel proposals to trim down on government expenses on quarterly basis, the finance ministry has come out with elaborate guidelines to ‘ensure fiscal discipline’ amongst ministries and departments. Departments have been asked to refrain from holding conferences in five star hotels, while babus have to switch to low-cost airlines for official travel.
This is the first time when such guidelines have been issued within two months of the Budget being passed. Such measures are usually taken in the third quarter of the year when expenditures of government ministries are reviewed and revised estimates drawn up.
Even though it is an election year when government is at its generous best, no new schemes would be announced apart from what has been promised in the Budget. The guidelines also said there will be no additional expenditure over and above the prescribed budgets for existing schemes and no changes in any schemes will be permitted.
Urging his colleagues to observe austerity and expecting full support from them, the PM in his letter said that spiraling oil prices have imposed a huge burden on the financial resources of the country and as some of this load is borne by the public, it is the “moral duty” of the government to cut down on all unwanted expenditure in its establishments.
“We need to explain to the people the constraints and reasons that have compelled the government to introduce these measures. Simultaneously, however, it is equally necessary for us to introduce the utmost Economy in our own administrations and establishments. It cannot be denied that there is substantial scope to reduce expenditure on travel and administration,” Singh wrote.
“I am, therefore, writing to ask you to severely curtail expenditure on air travel, particularly foreign travel, except in cases where it is deemed to be absolutely necessary. This Economy may be made applicable immediately for your own self and also for all senior functionaries in your Ministry,” Singh wrote. This is not the first time the PM has written such a letter. He had written a similar letter couple of years back.
Reiterating the PM’s concerns, Expenditure Secretary Sushma Nath said, “There is tremendous pressure on government’s resources due to food and fertiliser subsidies, NREGA, rising oil prices, leading to the need for Economy and rationalisation of expenditure.”
Food Is Gold, So Billions Invested in Farming
Huge investment funds have already poured hundreds of billions of dollars into booming financial markets for commodities like wheat, corn and soybeans.
But a few big private investors are starting to make bolder and longer-term bets that the world’s need for food will greatly increase — by buying farmland, fertilizer, grain elevators and shipping equipment.
One has bought several ethanol plants, Canadian farmland and enough storage space in the Midwest to hold millions of bushels of grain.
Another is buying more than five dozen grain elevators, nearly that many fertilizer distribution outlets and a fleet of barges and ships.
And three institutional investors, including the giant BlackRock fund group in New York, are separately planning to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in agriculture, chiefly farmland, from sub-Saharan Africa to the English countryside.
“It’s going on big time,” said Brad Cole, president of Cole Partners Asset Management in Chicago, which runs a fund of hedge funds focused on natural resources. “There is considerable interest in what we call ‘owning structure’ — like United States farmland, Argentine farmland, English farmland — wherever the profit picture is improving.”
These new bets by big investors could bolster food production at a time when the world needs more of it.
The investors plan to consolidate small plots of land into more productive large ones, to introduce new technology and to provide capital to modernize and maintain grain elevators and fertilizer supply depots.
But the long-term implications are less clear. Some traditional players in the farm economy, and others who study and shape agriculture policy, say they are concerned these newcomers will focus on profits above all else, and not share the industry’s commitment to farming through good times and bad.
“Farmland can be a bubble just like Florida real estate,” said Jeffrey Hainline, president of Advance Trading, a 28-year-old commodity brokerage firm and consulting service in Bloomington, Ill. “The cycle of getting in and out would be very volatile and disruptive.”
By owning land and other parts of the agricultural business, these new investors are freed from rules aimed at curbing the number of speculative bets that they and other financial investors can make in commodity markets. “I just wonder if they need some sheep’s clothing to put on,” Mr. Hainline said.
Mark Lapolla, an adviser to institutional investors, is also a bit wary of the potential disruption this new money could cause. “It is important to ask whether these financial investors want to actually operate the means of production — or simply want to have a direct link into the physical supply of commodities and thereby reduce the risk of their speculation,” he said.
Grain elevators, especially, could give these investors new ways to make money, because they can buy or sell the actual bushels of corn or soybeans, rather than buying and selling financial derivatives that are linked to those commodities.
When crop prices are climbing, holding inventory for future sale can yield higher profits than selling to meet current demand, for example. Or if prices diverge in different parts of the world, inventory can be shipped to the more profitable market.
“It’s a huge disadvantage to not be able to trade the physical commodity,” said Andrew J. Redleaf, founder of Whitebox Advisors, a hedge fund management firm in Minneapolis.
Mr. Redleaf bought several large grain elevator complexes from ConAgra and Cargill last year for a long-term stake in what he sees as a high-growth business. The elevators can store 36 million bushels of grain.
“We discovered that our lease customers, major food company types, are really happy to see us, because they are apt to see Cargill and ConAgra as competitors,” he said.
The executives making such bets say that fears about their new role are unfounded, and that their investments will be a plus for farming and, ultimately, for consumers.
“The world is asking for more food, more energy. You see a huge demand,” said Axel Hinsch, chief executive of Calyx Agro, a division of the giant Louis Dreyfus Commodities, which is buying tens of thousands of acres of cropland in Brazil with the backing of big institutional investors, including AIG Investments.
“What this new investment will buy is more technology,” Mr. Hinsch said. “We will be helping to accelerate the development of infrastructure, and the consumer will benefit because there will be more supply.”
Financial investors also can provide grain elevator operators the money they need to weather today’s more volatile commodity markets. When wild swings in prices become common, as they are now, elevator operators have to put up more cash to lock in future prices. John Duryea, co-portfolio manager of the Ospraie Special Opportunity Fund, is buying 66 grain elevators with a total capacity of 110 million bushels from ConAgra for $2.1 billion. The deal, expected to close by the end of June, also will give Ospraie a stake in 57 fertilizer distribution centers and the barges and ships necessary to keep them supplied with low-cost imports.
Maintaining these essential services “helps bring costs down to the farmers,” Mr. Duryea said. “That has to help mitigate the price increases for crops.”
Mr. Duryea of the Ospraie fund dismissed the idea that financial investors, with obligations to suppliers and customers of their elevators and fertilizer services, would put their thumb on the supply-demand scale by holding back inventory to move prices artificially.
“It is not in our best interests for anyone to be negatively affected by what we do,” he said.
Perhaps the most ambitious plans are those of Susan Payne, founder and chief executive of Emergent Asset Management, based near London.
Emergent is raising $450 million to $750 million to invest in farmland in sub-Saharan Africa, where it plans to consolidate small plots into more productive holdings and introduce better equipment. Emergent also plans to provide clinics and schools for local labor.
One crop and a source of fuel for farming operations will be jatropha, an oil-seed plant useful for biofuels that is grown in sandy soil unsuitable for food production, Ms. Payne said.
“We are getting strong response from institutional investors — pensions, insurance companies, endowments, some sovereign wealth funds,” she said.
The fund chose Africa because “land values are very, very inexpensive, compared to other agriculture-based economies,” she said. “Its microclimates are enticing, allowing a range of different crops. There’s accessible labor. And there’s good logistics — wide open roads, good truck transport, sea transport.”
The Emergent fund is one of a growing roster of farmland investment funds based in Britain.
Last October, the London branch of BlackRock introduced the BlackRock Agriculture Fund, aiming to raise $200 million to invest in fertilizer production, timberland and biofuels. The fund currently stands at more than $450 million.
Braemar Group, near Manchester, is investing exclusively in Britain. “Britain is a nice, stable northwestern European economy with the same climate and quality of soil as northwestern Europe,” said Marc Duschenes, Braemar’s chief executive. “But our land is at a 50 percent discount to Ireland and Denmark. We just haven’t caught up yet.“
Europe, like the United States, is facing mandated increases in biofuel production, he said, and cropland near new ethanol facilities in the northeast of England will be the first source of supply.
“No one is going to put a ton of grain on a boat in Latin America and ship it to the northeast of England to turn it into bioethanol,” he said.
For Gary R. Blumenthal, chief executive of World Perspectives, an agriculture consulting firm in Washington, the new investments by big financial players, if sustained, could be just what global agriculture needs — “where you can bring small, fragmented pieces together to boost the production side of agriculture.”
He added: “Investment funds are seeing that this consolidation brings value to them. But I’m saying this brings value to everyone.”
But a few big private investors are starting to make bolder and longer-term bets that the world’s need for food will greatly increase — by buying farmland, fertilizer, grain elevators and shipping equipment.
One has bought several ethanol plants, Canadian farmland and enough storage space in the Midwest to hold millions of bushels of grain.
Another is buying more than five dozen grain elevators, nearly that many fertilizer distribution outlets and a fleet of barges and ships.
And three institutional investors, including the giant BlackRock fund group in New York, are separately planning to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in agriculture, chiefly farmland, from sub-Saharan Africa to the English countryside.
“It’s going on big time,” said Brad Cole, president of Cole Partners Asset Management in Chicago, which runs a fund of hedge funds focused on natural resources. “There is considerable interest in what we call ‘owning structure’ — like United States farmland, Argentine farmland, English farmland — wherever the profit picture is improving.”
These new bets by big investors could bolster food production at a time when the world needs more of it.
The investors plan to consolidate small plots of land into more productive large ones, to introduce new technology and to provide capital to modernize and maintain grain elevators and fertilizer supply depots.
But the long-term implications are less clear. Some traditional players in the farm economy, and others who study and shape agriculture policy, say they are concerned these newcomers will focus on profits above all else, and not share the industry’s commitment to farming through good times and bad.
“Farmland can be a bubble just like Florida real estate,” said Jeffrey Hainline, president of Advance Trading, a 28-year-old commodity brokerage firm and consulting service in Bloomington, Ill. “The cycle of getting in and out would be very volatile and disruptive.”
By owning land and other parts of the agricultural business, these new investors are freed from rules aimed at curbing the number of speculative bets that they and other financial investors can make in commodity markets. “I just wonder if they need some sheep’s clothing to put on,” Mr. Hainline said.
Mark Lapolla, an adviser to institutional investors, is also a bit wary of the potential disruption this new money could cause. “It is important to ask whether these financial investors want to actually operate the means of production — or simply want to have a direct link into the physical supply of commodities and thereby reduce the risk of their speculation,” he said.
Grain elevators, especially, could give these investors new ways to make money, because they can buy or sell the actual bushels of corn or soybeans, rather than buying and selling financial derivatives that are linked to those commodities.
When crop prices are climbing, holding inventory for future sale can yield higher profits than selling to meet current demand, for example. Or if prices diverge in different parts of the world, inventory can be shipped to the more profitable market.
“It’s a huge disadvantage to not be able to trade the physical commodity,” said Andrew J. Redleaf, founder of Whitebox Advisors, a hedge fund management firm in Minneapolis.
Mr. Redleaf bought several large grain elevator complexes from ConAgra and Cargill last year for a long-term stake in what he sees as a high-growth business. The elevators can store 36 million bushels of grain.
“We discovered that our lease customers, major food company types, are really happy to see us, because they are apt to see Cargill and ConAgra as competitors,” he said.
The executives making such bets say that fears about their new role are unfounded, and that their investments will be a plus for farming and, ultimately, for consumers.
“The world is asking for more food, more energy. You see a huge demand,” said Axel Hinsch, chief executive of Calyx Agro, a division of the giant Louis Dreyfus Commodities, which is buying tens of thousands of acres of cropland in Brazil with the backing of big institutional investors, including AIG Investments.
“What this new investment will buy is more technology,” Mr. Hinsch said. “We will be helping to accelerate the development of infrastructure, and the consumer will benefit because there will be more supply.”
Financial investors also can provide grain elevator operators the money they need to weather today’s more volatile commodity markets. When wild swings in prices become common, as they are now, elevator operators have to put up more cash to lock in future prices. John Duryea, co-portfolio manager of the Ospraie Special Opportunity Fund, is buying 66 grain elevators with a total capacity of 110 million bushels from ConAgra for $2.1 billion. The deal, expected to close by the end of June, also will give Ospraie a stake in 57 fertilizer distribution centers and the barges and ships necessary to keep them supplied with low-cost imports.
Maintaining these essential services “helps bring costs down to the farmers,” Mr. Duryea said. “That has to help mitigate the price increases for crops.”
Mr. Duryea of the Ospraie fund dismissed the idea that financial investors, with obligations to suppliers and customers of their elevators and fertilizer services, would put their thumb on the supply-demand scale by holding back inventory to move prices artificially.
“It is not in our best interests for anyone to be negatively affected by what we do,” he said.
Perhaps the most ambitious plans are those of Susan Payne, founder and chief executive of Emergent Asset Management, based near London.
Emergent is raising $450 million to $750 million to invest in farmland in sub-Saharan Africa, where it plans to consolidate small plots into more productive holdings and introduce better equipment. Emergent also plans to provide clinics and schools for local labor.
One crop and a source of fuel for farming operations will be jatropha, an oil-seed plant useful for biofuels that is grown in sandy soil unsuitable for food production, Ms. Payne said.
“We are getting strong response from institutional investors — pensions, insurance companies, endowments, some sovereign wealth funds,” she said.
The fund chose Africa because “land values are very, very inexpensive, compared to other agriculture-based economies,” she said. “Its microclimates are enticing, allowing a range of different crops. There’s accessible labor. And there’s good logistics — wide open roads, good truck transport, sea transport.”
The Emergent fund is one of a growing roster of farmland investment funds based in Britain.
Last October, the London branch of BlackRock introduced the BlackRock Agriculture Fund, aiming to raise $200 million to invest in fertilizer production, timberland and biofuels. The fund currently stands at more than $450 million.
Braemar Group, near Manchester, is investing exclusively in Britain. “Britain is a nice, stable northwestern European economy with the same climate and quality of soil as northwestern Europe,” said Marc Duschenes, Braemar’s chief executive. “But our land is at a 50 percent discount to Ireland and Denmark. We just haven’t caught up yet.“
Europe, like the United States, is facing mandated increases in biofuel production, he said, and cropland near new ethanol facilities in the northeast of England will be the first source of supply.
“No one is going to put a ton of grain on a boat in Latin America and ship it to the northeast of England to turn it into bioethanol,” he said.
For Gary R. Blumenthal, chief executive of World Perspectives, an agriculture consulting firm in Washington, the new investments by big financial players, if sustained, could be just what global agriculture needs — “where you can bring small, fragmented pieces together to boost the production side of agriculture.”
He added: “Investment funds are seeing that this consolidation brings value to them. But I’m saying this brings value to everyone.”
Oil Rises Above $128 After Record Surge on Weak Dollar
Oil rose above $128 on Friday, extending gains after its biggest ever one-day rise in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar weakened on signals the European Central Bank may raise interest rates this year.
U.S. light crude for July delivery rose 31 cents a barrel to $128.10 a barrel by 10:11 p.m. EDT, having settled up $5.49 at $127.79, erasing two days of sharp losses triggered by worries that high oil prices were starting to dent demand.
The contract was up $6.08 to $128.38 in after-hours trading, its largest outright gain on record and up by nearly 5 percent from Wednesday's settlement.
London Brent crude rose 5 cents to $127.59 on Friday.
"A $6 jump is quite a major move. Financial flows came back. If oil continues to rise, it could test $135 or $140. The market is in a state of uncertainty after such a move," Marc Lansonneur, Societe Generale's head of commodities derivatives in Asia, said.
"Today will be a key day because we'll see whether the rebound was purely technical or not. It could set the trend for next week," he added. The dollar was steady against the euro on Friday, having fallen by more than 1 percent on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said a number of policymakers wanted higher interest rates and a hike was possible as soon as next month.
DEMAND
The sharp reversal in the dollar put longer-term worries about weakening oil demand on the backburner, after they were rekindled earlier this week when India and Malaysia decided to raise domestic fuel prices to cope with bulging subsidy bills.
The International Energy Agency, adviser to 27 industrialized countries, issues its latest forecasts next week and has said it may lower its 2008 demand growth projection further, after having already more than halved it to 1.03 million barrels per day (bpd), from an early estimate of 2.2 million bpd in July 2007.
But some analysts say subsidy cuts in Asia will not be enough to slow oil use.
"World oil demand growth is still accounted mostly by China, the Middle East and Latin America - and through the summer, there is no reason to expect a material slowdown in demand growth in these areas," said Harry Tchilinguirian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London in the bank's June global outlook.
U.S. light crude for July delivery rose 31 cents a barrel to $128.10 a barrel by 10:11 p.m. EDT, having settled up $5.49 at $127.79, erasing two days of sharp losses triggered by worries that high oil prices were starting to dent demand.
The contract was up $6.08 to $128.38 in after-hours trading, its largest outright gain on record and up by nearly 5 percent from Wednesday's settlement.
London Brent crude rose 5 cents to $127.59 on Friday.
"A $6 jump is quite a major move. Financial flows came back. If oil continues to rise, it could test $135 or $140. The market is in a state of uncertainty after such a move," Marc Lansonneur, Societe Generale's head of commodities derivatives in Asia, said.
"Today will be a key day because we'll see whether the rebound was purely technical or not. It could set the trend for next week," he added. The dollar was steady against the euro on Friday, having fallen by more than 1 percent on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said a number of policymakers wanted higher interest rates and a hike was possible as soon as next month.
DEMAND
The sharp reversal in the dollar put longer-term worries about weakening oil demand on the backburner, after they were rekindled earlier this week when India and Malaysia decided to raise domestic fuel prices to cope with bulging subsidy bills.
The International Energy Agency, adviser to 27 industrialized countries, issues its latest forecasts next week and has said it may lower its 2008 demand growth projection further, after having already more than halved it to 1.03 million barrels per day (bpd), from an early estimate of 2.2 million bpd in July 2007.
But some analysts say subsidy cuts in Asia will not be enough to slow oil use.
"World oil demand growth is still accounted mostly by China, the Middle East and Latin America - and through the summer, there is no reason to expect a material slowdown in demand growth in these areas," said Harry Tchilinguirian, oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London in the bank's June global outlook.
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