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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Trade Deficit in U.S. Widens Less Than Forecast as Exports Gain

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit in June widened less than forecast, reflecting a second consecutive gain in exports as economies throughout the world picked up. A jump in oil prices also boosted imports.

The gap climbed 4 percent to $27 billion from $26 in May that was the lowest level in almost a decade, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Overseas demand for American- made goods, such as semiconductors and aircraft engines, pushed exports up 2 percent, almost matching the 2.3 percent increase in imports.

The increase in sales signals the worst global slump in the post-World War II era is coming to an end, helping the U.S. economy pull out of the recession even as consumer spending is slow to recover. Federal Reserve policy makers, wrapping up a two- day meeting today, are expected to commit to keeping rates low to spur growth.

``Growth in the rest of the world is picking up,'' Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. ``Across Asia, we're seeing a pickup and we should see export growth.''

The trade gap was projected to widen to $28.7 billion, according to the median of 70 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Deficit projections ranged from $31 billion to $25.5 billion.

Exports climbed to $125.8 billion from $123.4 billion in May. Sales of chemicals, fuel oil and foods, in addition to capital equipment, climbed.

Oil Prices

Imports increased to $152.8 billion from $149.3 billion the prior month. The price of imported crude oil jumped to $59.17 a barrel, the highest level since November, from $51.21. Americans also bought more foreign-made automobiles and parts and computers. Demand for consumer goods, such as toys, televisions and clothing, slumped.

Demand for auto parts and industrial supplies by companies such as General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. ahead of the annual retooling of plants for the new model year may have boosted imports in June, according to Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado.

The gain in auto imports was probably even bigger in July when plants reopened and the federal ``cash-for-clunkers'' program got under way, said Englund. Car sales last month climbed to the highest level since September.

After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit shrank to $35.9 billion, the smallest since December 1999.

Help from Trade

The shrinking of the trade shortfall in the first half of the year helped limit the severity of the worst recession since the 1930s. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month forecast the economy will grow at a 2.1 percent pace in the second half of 2009.

Exports are likely to keep expanding as the global recession eases. China may grow 7.5 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said July 8 in its latest forecast. Demand for American-made goods increased in Mexico, the European Union, Canada and China.

The trade gap with China increased to $18.4 billion from $17.5 billion in the prior month.

Some companies are already seeing gains overseas. Caterpillar Inc., the largest producer of earthmoving equipment, posted second-quarter profit that exceeded analysts' highest estimate and raised its full-year forecast, saying China's stimulus program is supporting global demand.

Stimulus Working


``We are seeing signs of stabilization that we hope will set the foundation for an eventual recovery,'' Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said in a statement July 21. ``Fiscal policy and monetary stimulus have been introduced around the world, an we are seeing signs, particularly in China, that they are beginning to work.''

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress July 21 that aggressive and concerted policy actions taken by governments last fall helped avert a financial meltdown and since then the U.S. economy and those of its trading partners appeared to be stabilizing.

``Although the recession in the rest of the world led to a steep drop in the demand for U.S. exports, this drag on our economy also appears to be waning, as many of our trading partners are also seeing signs of stabilization.''

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