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Thursday, October 16, 2008

Markets tumble as recession fears trump bailout

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gloomy economic data and warnings from the U.S. Federal Reserve that hard times were still to come wiped out two days of relative optimism about the credit crisis and sent markets into free-fall on Wednesday.

In the worst one-day percentage declines since the stock market crash of 1987, the Dow Jones industrial average ended down 733 points or 7.87 percent, and the S&P 500 index lost 9 percent. The losses reversed Monday's record surges that had been sparked by optimism about bank bailouts.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that credit market turmoil posed a "significant threat" to an already weak economy.

European shares shed 6 percent and U.S. crude fell more than $4 a barrel to a 13-month low of $74.54.

France, Germany and Britain called for leaders of the Group of Eight major industrialized countries to gather next month with the heads of emerging economies to consider a radical overhaul of the world's 60-year-old financial architecture.

The White House said G8 leaders were expected to meet this year on the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The United States reported its biggest monthly decline in retail sales in more than three years, and Europe offered negative economic data and outlooks of its own.

Governments around the world have pledged $3.2 trillion in emergency measures, including taking stakes in banks to help them stabilize, rallying world markets on Monday.

Optimism quickly gave way to fears that major economies were headed for recession despite government intervention.

GLOOMY OUTLOOK FROM FED

"By restricting flows of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments, the turmoil in financial markets and the funding pressures on financial firms pose a significant threat to economic growth," Bernanke said.

Suggesting an openness to further interest-rate cuts, Bernanke said concerns about inflation were diminishing. He said it would take time to restore normal flows of credit.

Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said latest readings on the U.S. economy have become more downbeat and the impact of a recent emergency interest rate cut had been "overwhelmed" by escalating mistrust among financial institutions unwilling to lend to one another.

The U.S. housing market has yet to hit bottom, and inventories of unsold homes are likely to remain elevated, Kohn said. It was probable the economy would remain "subpar" well into next year, gradually improving in late 2009 and 2010, he said.

As stocks around the world plunged and emerging markets were pummeled, the dollar and safe haven assets such as gold and short term U.S. treasuries rose.

"It looks like everything that's economically sensitive is getting hit pretty good," said Scott Vergin, portfolio manager at Thrivent Financial in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

"The thing is, how much has the credit crunch already impacted the real economy?" added Vergin. "That's what everyone's really worried about."

SUMMIT TO REFORM FINANCIAL SYSTEM

At a European Union summit in Brussels, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown led calls for an international summit and urged a rebuilding of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the keystone of global market regulation.

EU leaders called for a summit soon to revamp financial structures set up at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944.

Dutch Finance Minister Wouter Bos said a stronger role for the IMF was needed "in the absence of American leadership at the moment." French President Nicolas Sarkozy told the summit a "new form of capitalism" was needed.

The United States on Tuesday offered to take up to $250 billion worth of equity in its banks, an astonishing move in the home of free market capitalism.

U.S. President George W. Bush stressed that the move was temporary. "I'm confident in the long run this economy will come back," he told reporters.

The U.S. action followed an agreement by European leaders to undertake a 2.2 trillion euro ($3 trillion) rescue of European banking giants, which have been hit by a credit crisis brought on by defaulting mortgages in the United States.

SIGNS OF RECESSION

Signs of a looming recession abounded on Wednesday.

The U.S. government said retail sales dropped 1.2 percent in September, the biggest monthly decline in three years, and wholesale prices slipped 0.4 percent.

The Fed's Beige Book report said economic activity weakened across the United States in September as businesses revised capital investments and consumers curtailed spending.

U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase said third-quarter profit plunged 84 percent, while Wells Fargo & Co reported a 25 percent drop in earnings.

British unemployment rose to 5.7 percent, its highest level in eight years, according to government data. And German economic growth will only be slightly above zero in 2009, Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said.

The European Central Bank said it would allow banks to swap a larger range of their assets for central bank funds and offer extra U.S. dollar liquidity through foreign exchange swaps.

Southeast Asian nations, backed by $10 billion from the World Bank, were the latest to join the rescue effort, agreeing to create a multibillion fund to help banks.

Iceland, driven close to bankruptcy by the effects of frozen credit markets on its banks, cut interest rates a staggering 3.5 percentage points as its officials pursued help from Russia via a multibillion-euro loan.

The economy is dominating the U.S. presidential campaign, which sees a final debate between the candidates on Wednesday.

Democrat Barack Obama has accused Republicans of presiding over unfettered financial deregulation while John McCain has sought to regain his footing on economic issues after drawing criticism for saying U.S. fundamentals were strong.

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