Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- India’s government pledged to shrink its budget deficit by more than one percentage point of gross domestic product this year from the highest level since 1994, spurring a rally in the nation’s stocks and bonds.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, presenting the annual budget to parliament, said he plans to narrow the gap to 5.5 percent of GDP in the year starting April 1 from 6.9 percent the previous year. He also said economic growth may reach 10 percent in “not-too-distant future.” Government figures earlier showed GDP rose 6 percent in the fourth quarter from a year before.
The effort may help bolster investor confidence in India, which has the lowest sovereign-debt rating among the BRIC nations that include Brazil, Russia and China. India and China, the world’s fastest-growing major economies, are both taking steps to rein in stimulus measures as the global economy emerges from recession and inflation pressures escalate.
“India and China have bounced back strongly and the challenge now is to check excessive demand and inflation,” D. H. Pai Panandiker, president of New Delhi-based RPG Foundation, an economic research group, said before the budget announcement. “Slashing the deficit will send the right signal to investors about the government’s seriousness to cut debt.”
India’s Sensitive stocks index jumped 1.5 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in Mumbai, helping pare its losses since the start of the year that were spurred in part by global investor concern about sovereign debt quality. Yields on benchmark 10-year government notes fell to 7.78 percent, from 7.82 percent earlier, according to the central bank’s trading system.
Inflation Battle
The reduction in fiscal stimulus also comes as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government is battling to restrain inflation that threatens to erode the purchasing power of the nation’s consumers and worsen poverty rates.
Prices paid by industrial workers in India rose almost 15 percent in December from a year earlier, the most in 11 years. Industrial production grew 16.8 percent in December, the quickest pace since at least 1994, prompting the central bank to say manufacturers are nearing capacity.
Rising prices prompted lawmakers yesterday to debate the issue in parliament and blamed Singh for failing to keep his promise of taming inflation within 100 days of his reelection. Singh was voted back for a five-year term in May last year.
China, which saw an expansion of 10.7 percent last quarter from a year before, the fastest pace among major economies, is battling to slow property prices that surged 9.5 percent in January, the most in 21 months.
Central Bank
Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said last month that India needs to cut its budget deficit to help check inflation and that it was a “bigger risk” to the economy than any other factor.
Even so, the annual Economic Survey, prepared by officials advising Mukherjee, said yesterday that expansion in gross capital fixed formation, a proxy for investment growth, is at 5.2 percent, below the economic growth rate. That makes it necessary to watch the growth recovery in private investment in the fiscal third and fourth quarters while scaling back fiscal stimulus, according to the report.
“It is important to maintain the policy framework in order not to throttle the spontaneous growth momentum that the economy is demonstrating currently,” said Amit Mitra, secretary general of the New Delhi-based Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.
Corporate Earnings
Company performance has been mixed. Larsen & Toubro Ltd., India’s biggest engineering company, reported a 50 percent decline in profit last quarter after some orders were deferred. Car sales by Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. and other companies gained in January to a record, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers said Feb. 9.
Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley expect Mukherjee to increase excise tax by 2 percentage points in the budget. Goldman Sachs economist Tushar Poddar said service tax may also be raised to 12 percent from 10 percent, helping boost total tax revenues by 17 percent next year after a 2 percent gain in the current year.
“Improved growth outlook suggests the government has greater scope to wind back fiscal stimulus and make real structural improvements to the deficit,” said Brian Jackson, the Hong Kong-based emerging-market strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. Jackson expects the government to accelerate asset sales.
Morgan Stanley Research Managing Director Chetan Ahya said Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government may target 250 billion rupees ($5.4 billion) from sale of stakes in state-run companies and another 300 billion rupees from auction of licenses for third-generation mobile-phone services.
Wireless Licenses
As many as 13 wireless operators, including Vodafone Group Plc and Bharti Airtel Ltd. may compete for the licenses. The companies in which equity stakes will be sold include Coal India Ltd., India’s monopoly coal producer, and Steel Authority of India Ltd., the nation’s second-largest steelmaker.
The additional revenue may help Mukherjee allocate more money for the government’s rural jobs program after poor monsoon rains last year hurt farm production and reduced incomes of the country’s 700 million people who live in the countryside.
The drop in agriculture output slowed economic growth to 6 percent in the quarter ended Dec. 31 after a 7.9 percent gain in the previous quarter, the nation’s statistics office said in a separate statement in New Delhi today.
Investment Need
“India needs to use its budget to achieve more investment in agriculture and infrastructure,” Gerard Lyons, the chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank said in an interview in New Delhi on Feb. 11. “Fiscal consolidation is important.”
Subsidies for food and fertilizer now consume 10 percent of the budget. With another 14 percent of the budget devoted to defense, 19 percent to pay interest on the national debt and another 25 percent given to states as their share of the federal government’s revenue, there’s little left to pay for schools, power plants and other investments that can boost growth.
As a result, debt sales may rise 2 percent in the 12 months starting April 1 to a record 4.6 trillion rupees, according to the median forecast in a survey of 13 economists and investors.
With a debt level almost quadruple China’s -- at an estimated 86 percent of GDP this year according to the IMF -- fiscal restraint may also aid a sovereign-debt rating that’s the lowest among the BRIC nations, which include Brazil, Russia and China.
“If the exit path is well articulated and well executed, the local-currency rating could be upgraded,” Moody’s Investors Service sovereign analyst Aninda Mitra said in a Feb. 19 interview. Moody’s ranks India’s rupee-denominated debt at Ba2, two levels below investment grade.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Highlights of the Economic Survey
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday tabled the Economic Survey for 2009-10 that says that economic recovery is weak and the high double-digit food inflation in 2009-10 is a matter of great concern.
The survey warned that high food prices would rise further over next few months and criticised the food management policies that have led to 'unacceptably' high prices of items like sugar.
However, it says that full economic recovery and return to 9 per cent growth rate is likely in 2011-12.
Following are the highlights of Economic Survey 2009-10:
Economy likely to grow by up to 8.75 per cent in 2010-11.
Full recovery; return to 9 per cent growth in 2011-12.
Broad recovery gives scope for gradual stimulus roll back.
High double-digit food inflation in 2009-10 major concern.
Signs of food inflation spreading to other sectors.
Farm & allied sector production falls 0.2% in 2009-10.
Need serious policy initiatives for 4% agriculture growth.
Moots direct food subsidy via food coupons to households.
Favours making available food in open mkt.
Favours monthly ration coupons usable anywhere for poor.
Gross fiscal deficit pegged at 6.5 pc of GDP in 2009-10.
India 10th largest gold holding nation at 557.7 tonnes.
Exports in April-December 2009 down 20.3 per cent.
Imports in April-December 2009 down 23.6 per cent.
Trade gap narrowed to USD 76.24 bn in April-December.
32.5% savings & 34.9% investment (of GDP in 2008-09) put India in league of world's fastest growing nations.
Government initiates steps to boost private investment in agri.
Wants credit available at reasonable rates on time for private sector to invest in agriculture.
Slowdown in infrastructure that began in 2007, arrested.
Domestic oil production to rise 11 per cent in 2009-10.
Gas output up 52.8 per cent to 50.2 billion cubic meters with RIL [ Get Quote ] starting production.
India world's 2nd largest wireless network with 525.1 million mobile users.
Virtually every second Indian has access to phone.
Auction for 3G spectrum to provide existing and foreign players to bring in new technology and innovations.
The survey warned that high food prices would rise further over next few months and criticised the food management policies that have led to 'unacceptably' high prices of items like sugar.
However, it says that full economic recovery and return to 9 per cent growth rate is likely in 2011-12.
Following are the highlights of Economic Survey 2009-10:
Economy likely to grow by up to 8.75 per cent in 2010-11.
Full recovery; return to 9 per cent growth in 2011-12.
Broad recovery gives scope for gradual stimulus roll back.
High double-digit food inflation in 2009-10 major concern.
Signs of food inflation spreading to other sectors.
Farm & allied sector production falls 0.2% in 2009-10.
Need serious policy initiatives for 4% agriculture growth.
Moots direct food subsidy via food coupons to households.
Favours making available food in open mkt.
Favours monthly ration coupons usable anywhere for poor.
Gross fiscal deficit pegged at 6.5 pc of GDP in 2009-10.
India 10th largest gold holding nation at 557.7 tonnes.
Exports in April-December 2009 down 20.3 per cent.
Imports in April-December 2009 down 23.6 per cent.
Trade gap narrowed to USD 76.24 bn in April-December.
32.5% savings & 34.9% investment (of GDP in 2008-09) put India in league of world's fastest growing nations.
Government initiates steps to boost private investment in agri.
Wants credit available at reasonable rates on time for private sector to invest in agriculture.
Slowdown in infrastructure that began in 2007, arrested.
Domestic oil production to rise 11 per cent in 2009-10.
Gas output up 52.8 per cent to 50.2 billion cubic meters with RIL [ Get Quote ] starting production.
India world's 2nd largest wireless network with 525.1 million mobile users.
Virtually every second Indian has access to phone.
Auction for 3G spectrum to provide existing and foreign players to bring in new technology and innovations.
Sachin creates history
Master blaster Sachin Tendulkar became the first batsman ever to score 200 runs in the history of the 50-over game. As Sachin broke the record of the highest One-Day International score of 194 runs held jointly by Pakistan's Saeed Anwar and Zimbabwe's Charles Coventry during his knock of 46th ODI hundred, we take a look at the centuries he has scored so far in his career.
British media praise 'mighty' Sachin Tendulkar
London, Feb 25 (PTI) Sachin Tendulkar's stupendous feat of becoming the first cricketer to score a double century in one-dayer was today hailed by the British media, which described the little master as the "finest batsman" ever.
"Tendulkar underlined his sensational class with a double century in Gwalior. To have reached such a landmark, with a single in the final over, only serves to underline his class and add to the legacy that already surrounds arguably the finest batsman to have played the game," BBC Sports said.
"His innings, the 46th one-day century of his career, was typified by wristy strokes, trademark boundary shots and, above all, stamina as he batted through the entire innings," the report read.
Meanwhile, The Times tried to anticipate whether the Indian can complete a century of centuries in international cricket by the end of this year.
"Tendulkar underlined his sensational class with a double century in Gwalior. To have reached such a landmark, with a single in the final over, only serves to underline his class and add to the legacy that already surrounds arguably the finest batsman to have played the game," BBC Sports said.
"His innings, the 46th one-day century of his career, was typified by wristy strokes, trademark boundary shots and, above all, stamina as he batted through the entire innings," the report read.
Meanwhile, The Times tried to anticipate whether the Indian can complete a century of centuries in international cricket by the end of this year.
Monday, February 22, 2010
US fund houses launch five India-specific ETFs
Mumbai: American fund houses have launched five more India-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to tap the growth potential of Asia’s third-largest economy that defied the global recession to post an impressive growth rate of 6.7% last financial year.
These funds are BGI S&P India Nifty 50, Direxion India Bull 3x Shares, Direxion India Bear 3x Shares, SPDR S&P India and WisdomTree India Total Dividend. The fund houses have filed their papers with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), said a person familiar with the matter, requesting anonymity.
ETFs are open-ended funds that are designed to track specific indices and trade just like any other stock. They are priced continuously and can be acquired by placing an order with a stock broker during trading hours.
Direxion Shares and Direxion Funds, managed by Rafferty Asset Management, offer leveraged index funds that buy more shares than you can with cash, ETFs and alternative-class fund products for investment advisors and sophisticated investors who seek to effectively manage risk and return in both bull and bear markets.
SPDR ETF, managed by the Boston-based SSgA Funds Management, are index funds that track the S&P 500 Index. Barclays Global Investors or BGI has filed papers for a new ETF linked to the S&P India Nifty Index.
Currently, there are just two India ETFs, from PowerShares and WisdomTree. However, many other providers are looking to capitalise on the country’s growth. As on July 30, WisdomTree India Earnings (EPI) was up 63.7% year-to-date, while PowerShares India (PIN) was up 52.7% year-to-date.
The two India ETFs have more than $560 million in assets. As one of the few economies that grew in a year that saw most of the world in recession, India has a growing acceptance among global investors, said Ashu Suyash, India head of Fidelity International.
“A possible reason for the surge in ETFs investing in India is that risk appetite has returned sufficiently for investors to look at emerging markets again... As allocations grow, investors will begin to look for the alpha and follow a more actively-managed investment strategy,” she said.
California-based ETF expert Tom Lydon said investors increasingly recognise that ETFs make it easier to access markets that have certain restrictions (such as limits on foreign investment) or liquidity issues.
ETFs have become big investors in India, basically because the US retail investor has accepted India as part of his global equity portfolio, said Samir Arora of the Singapore-based Helios Capital Management. “That money cannot be easily raised by other intermediaries,” he said.
Over 25% of secondary market inflows were through this route in recent months, according to Credit Suisse. “ETFs are perhaps securitising emerging markets like India in the current global liquidity wave, the way previous liquidity waves saw securitisation of internet or developed world real estate,” said Nilesh Jasani and Arya Sen of Credit Suisse.
While there will be occasional outflow cycles in coming years, the overall influence wielded by ETFs is expected to grow larger. FII buying in India from April 1, 2009 is close to $9 billion.
A recent study by Novarica, a research and advisory firm serving insurers and wealth management companies, says globally the number of ETFs will shoot up from 728 in 2008 to 2,618 by 2015, while ETF assets will increase from $500 billion to $1.15 trillion.
These funds are BGI S&P India Nifty 50, Direxion India Bull 3x Shares, Direxion India Bear 3x Shares, SPDR S&P India and WisdomTree India Total Dividend. The fund houses have filed their papers with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), said a person familiar with the matter, requesting anonymity.
ETFs are open-ended funds that are designed to track specific indices and trade just like any other stock. They are priced continuously and can be acquired by placing an order with a stock broker during trading hours.
Direxion Shares and Direxion Funds, managed by Rafferty Asset Management, offer leveraged index funds that buy more shares than you can with cash, ETFs and alternative-class fund products for investment advisors and sophisticated investors who seek to effectively manage risk and return in both bull and bear markets.
SPDR ETF, managed by the Boston-based SSgA Funds Management, are index funds that track the S&P 500 Index. Barclays Global Investors or BGI has filed papers for a new ETF linked to the S&P India Nifty Index.
Currently, there are just two India ETFs, from PowerShares and WisdomTree. However, many other providers are looking to capitalise on the country’s growth. As on July 30, WisdomTree India Earnings (EPI) was up 63.7% year-to-date, while PowerShares India (PIN) was up 52.7% year-to-date.
The two India ETFs have more than $560 million in assets. As one of the few economies that grew in a year that saw most of the world in recession, India has a growing acceptance among global investors, said Ashu Suyash, India head of Fidelity International.
“A possible reason for the surge in ETFs investing in India is that risk appetite has returned sufficiently for investors to look at emerging markets again... As allocations grow, investors will begin to look for the alpha and follow a more actively-managed investment strategy,” she said.
California-based ETF expert Tom Lydon said investors increasingly recognise that ETFs make it easier to access markets that have certain restrictions (such as limits on foreign investment) or liquidity issues.
ETFs have become big investors in India, basically because the US retail investor has accepted India as part of his global equity portfolio, said Samir Arora of the Singapore-based Helios Capital Management. “That money cannot be easily raised by other intermediaries,” he said.
Over 25% of secondary market inflows were through this route in recent months, according to Credit Suisse. “ETFs are perhaps securitising emerging markets like India in the current global liquidity wave, the way previous liquidity waves saw securitisation of internet or developed world real estate,” said Nilesh Jasani and Arya Sen of Credit Suisse.
While there will be occasional outflow cycles in coming years, the overall influence wielded by ETFs is expected to grow larger. FII buying in India from April 1, 2009 is close to $9 billion.
A recent study by Novarica, a research and advisory firm serving insurers and wealth management companies, says globally the number of ETFs will shoot up from 728 in 2008 to 2,618 by 2015, while ETF assets will increase from $500 billion to $1.15 trillion.
Friday, February 19, 2010
India Must Cut Deficit Starting Next Year, Panel Says
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- India must cut its 16-year high budget deficit starting next financial year to make monetary policy effective in damping inflation, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council said.
“The government cannot continue with the kind of large revenue and fiscal deficits recorded in the last two years and will have to initiate fiscal consolidation in the coming fiscal year itself,” the panel said in a report in New Delhi before Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s federal budget on Feb. 26.
Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao last month said monetary policy alone won’t be effective in containing inflation unless Mukherjee withdraws fiscal stimulus measures and narrows the difference between spending and revenue. The Reserve Bank of India needs to move to “a neutral monetary policy as quickly as possible” as the economy recovers, Chakravarthy Rangarajan, chairman of the panel, told reporters today.
“It is necessary to initiate measures towards fiscal consolidation in the forthcoming budget to ensure fiscal sustainability and enable greater flexibility in monetary policy calibration,” he said.
India’s 10-year bonds headed for a fourth weekly decline, the longest losing streak since October, on speculation the government will increase its debt sales from a record. The yield on the 6.35 percent note due January 2020 rose two basis points this week to 7.89 percent as of 2:34 p.m. in Mumbai.
‘Bigger Risk’
Mukherjee may propose to borrow as much as 4.60 trillion rupees ($99 billion) in the next fiscal year, said Sanjay Arya, treasurer at state-owned Bank of Maharashtra in Mumbai. Gross borrowing next year may be “slightly lower,” said Rangarajan, who served as a central bank governor between 1992 and 1997.
Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Jan. 29 called the budget deficit a “bigger risk” to India’s economy than any other factor. The government can shrink the gap by reducing expenditure and subsidies, Rangarajan said.
The central bank last month raised India’s growth forecast to 7.5 percent in the year ending March 31, and its end-March inflation forecast to 8.5 percent from an earlier 6.5 percent. Subbarao also increased the proportion of deposits lenders need to maintain as cash reserves to 5.75 percent from 5 percent.
The prime minister’s advisory panel today forecast a 7.2 percent economic expansion in the year ending March 31. It expects growth to accelerate to 8.2 percent next year and 9 percent the following year. Low farm and power output are constraining growth, according to the report.
Mukherjee has undertaken to trim the budget deficit to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in the year ending March 31, 2011, from an estimated 6.8 percent this year.
“The government cannot continue with the kind of large revenue and fiscal deficits recorded in the last two years and will have to initiate fiscal consolidation in the coming fiscal year itself,” the panel said in a report in New Delhi before Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee’s federal budget on Feb. 26.
Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao last month said monetary policy alone won’t be effective in containing inflation unless Mukherjee withdraws fiscal stimulus measures and narrows the difference between spending and revenue. The Reserve Bank of India needs to move to “a neutral monetary policy as quickly as possible” as the economy recovers, Chakravarthy Rangarajan, chairman of the panel, told reporters today.
“It is necessary to initiate measures towards fiscal consolidation in the forthcoming budget to ensure fiscal sustainability and enable greater flexibility in monetary policy calibration,” he said.
India’s 10-year bonds headed for a fourth weekly decline, the longest losing streak since October, on speculation the government will increase its debt sales from a record. The yield on the 6.35 percent note due January 2020 rose two basis points this week to 7.89 percent as of 2:34 p.m. in Mumbai.
‘Bigger Risk’
Mukherjee may propose to borrow as much as 4.60 trillion rupees ($99 billion) in the next fiscal year, said Sanjay Arya, treasurer at state-owned Bank of Maharashtra in Mumbai. Gross borrowing next year may be “slightly lower,” said Rangarajan, who served as a central bank governor between 1992 and 1997.
Central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Jan. 29 called the budget deficit a “bigger risk” to India’s economy than any other factor. The government can shrink the gap by reducing expenditure and subsidies, Rangarajan said.
The central bank last month raised India’s growth forecast to 7.5 percent in the year ending March 31, and its end-March inflation forecast to 8.5 percent from an earlier 6.5 percent. Subbarao also increased the proportion of deposits lenders need to maintain as cash reserves to 5.75 percent from 5 percent.
The prime minister’s advisory panel today forecast a 7.2 percent economic expansion in the year ending March 31. It expects growth to accelerate to 8.2 percent next year and 9 percent the following year. Low farm and power output are constraining growth, according to the report.
Mukherjee has undertaken to trim the budget deficit to 5.5 percent of gross domestic product in the year ending March 31, 2011, from an estimated 6.8 percent this year.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
A good crisis brings greater influence
The global financial crisis had threatened to turn the clock back on a globalising India. Instead, the hands of time have advanced and the country’s impact has increased.
Second only to China as a fast-growing large economy, unlike that export-driven giant, India emerged relatively “unscathed” by the global economic downturn, in the words of the Asian Development Bank.
If economists were surprised when the country raced away from what had been resignedly called “the Hindu rate of growth” of about 3 per cent to reach highs of 9 per cent in the mid-2000s, they have been even more impressed in past months by India’s ability to withstand falling exports and external financial shocks.
The country’s economic policymakers have received international praise for their response to the crisis. In recent weeks, projections for a speedy recovery have grown more optimistic.
Manmohan Singh, the prime minister and the man responsible for opening up the economy in the early 1990s, speaks of a return to 9-10 per cent growth in a “couple of years”. His finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, forecasts 7.7 per cent this year, a fiscal stimulus-fuelled rise from 6.7 per cent last year.
“Underlying our system is an inherent political and economic resilience that gives our country and its institutions great strength and buoyancy,” Mr Singh reflects. “During the year gone by, the world faced an unprecedented economic and financial crisis. But the Indian economy weathered it quite well. We were affected, but not so much as many other countries.”
This was just as well. The 77-year-old Mr Singh warns that “the impatience of youth” – in a country where 70 per cent of the 1.2bn population is under 35 – will increasingly determine India’s future. He has prudently chosen education, health, infrastructure and agriculture as the top priorities after winning a second term in office last year.
He is simultaneously pushing forward the country’s interlinkages, striking free trade deals with Asean and South Korea, and negotiating another with the EU.
The resilience of the economy rests on a huge domestic market, and, unlike many Asian counterparts, a limited reliance on exports, which are less than 20 per cent of gross domestic product. While domestic demand was largely uninterrupted by the financial crisis, export sectors, such as diamond cutting and polishing, pharmaceuticals and textiles, suffered precipitous declines and are only now recovering.
Foreign capital flows and valuations on Sensex, the benchmark index on the Bombay Stock Exchange, bounced back rather quicker as investors seek returns from one of the brightest poles of economic activity.
Mergers and acquisitions activity is also set to rise. Cash-rich companies are weighing purchases in recession hit Europe, the US and other emerging markets.
A fast-growing economy, albeit with a strong internal motor, will hasten globalisation. The industrial sector is expanding at a double-digit rate, services, 55 per cent of GDP, are not far behind. Only agriculture, dented by a poor monsoon and representing 20 per cent of GDP, lags.
But there are still plenty of obstacles in the way of an open economy. “A racing car with the handbrake on,” is how one visiting politician describes the drag of over-regulation, red tape, vested interests and decrepit infrastructure.
Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s former prime minister, identifies failure to follow China’s focus on infrastructure as one of the biggest handicaps to India’s global integration.
The confident mood across Asia has led many international business leaders to comment on the stark contrast between the ambitions of large developing economies and the more introspective, punishing mood in the west.
Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, is one. “We all look to India now as a rising global economic power and in our interconnected world it has played a helpful role over the tough moments of the past year, not just during the discussions of the G20, but also in how it has steered [its] recovery,” says the former US Trade Representative, who once locked horns with India in trade talks.
International partners are beating a path to the door, lured by the promise of a drive towards manufacturing to add to the momentum achieved by a globalised services industry.
“In the caricature of the global economy,” says Lord Mandelson, the UK’s secretary for business. “China makes it, America buys it, India provides the after sales customer service and Britain does the structured finance.” That formulation is changing.
“India stands at a critical point in its transformation,” he says. “A young population is eager for change and the freedom to realise this global ambition. If India’s initial growth was driven by low-cost and low-value service provision, the next wave will be tied to rising value-added technology-driven manufacturing and services.”
This next wave has already arrived. The IT outsourcing sector – the likes of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro and Infosys – and automotive industry – including Hero Honda, Bharat Forge and Tata Motors – are innovating and adopting technologies to create a global “footprint”.
N Chandrasekaran, the chief executive of TCS, says the downturn in the west has opened up greater opportunities in IT outsourcing and business processing.
But he lays emphasis on developing new capabilities, products and business models to remain relevant to clients and move into new countries. “When offshoring itself was first proposed, no one believed it was a business model,” he recalls.
The confidence in the growing economy has permeated other areas too. Over the past year, India has sought to play a greater leadership role in multilateral forums debating trade, climate change and reforming the global financial architecture.
Next month’s national budget will be a test of whether the Congress party-led government can make the most of the post-crisis period and a strong victory in last year's polls, by embarking on structural reform.
Business groups are lobbying for liberalisation of the defence, retail and financial services sectors, labour market reform and state disinvestments to help sustain growth projections.
The Reserve Bank of India, the central bank, meanwhile, is renewing efforts to broaden financial inclusion, and reach out to the unbanked masses.
In the shorter term, rebuilding foreign exchange reserves, allowing the rupee to appreciate to help cool inflation, while maintaining a partially open capital account are the priorities.
Some believe that the country’s economic fortitude is derived from its isolation and a protective shield of regulation, forged over decades of socialist policies and entrenched local business interests.
But the benefits of a greater share of world trade, remittance flows close to $50bn a year and the appeal of foreign capital inflows are shaping policy.
“India was less affected by the crisis than the rest of the world, not because it was isolated but because its capitalist fundamentals are strong,” argues Shashi Tharoor, the minister of state for external affairs and former United Nations official. “India will not return to the economics of nationalism which equated political independence with economic self-sufficiency.”
The embrace of the outside world, however, will be anything but rushed. On this, Mr Singh has the last word: “It is probably true that we are a slow-moving elephant but it is equally true that with each step forward we leave behind a deep imprint. There is a price that we pay in trying to carry all sections of our people along ... It is perhaps a price worth paying.”
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Second only to China as a fast-growing large economy, unlike that export-driven giant, India emerged relatively “unscathed” by the global economic downturn, in the words of the Asian Development Bank.
If economists were surprised when the country raced away from what had been resignedly called “the Hindu rate of growth” of about 3 per cent to reach highs of 9 per cent in the mid-2000s, they have been even more impressed in past months by India’s ability to withstand falling exports and external financial shocks.
The country’s economic policymakers have received international praise for their response to the crisis. In recent weeks, projections for a speedy recovery have grown more optimistic.
Manmohan Singh, the prime minister and the man responsible for opening up the economy in the early 1990s, speaks of a return to 9-10 per cent growth in a “couple of years”. His finance minister, Pranab Mukherjee, forecasts 7.7 per cent this year, a fiscal stimulus-fuelled rise from 6.7 per cent last year.
“Underlying our system is an inherent political and economic resilience that gives our country and its institutions great strength and buoyancy,” Mr Singh reflects. “During the year gone by, the world faced an unprecedented economic and financial crisis. But the Indian economy weathered it quite well. We were affected, but not so much as many other countries.”
This was just as well. The 77-year-old Mr Singh warns that “the impatience of youth” – in a country where 70 per cent of the 1.2bn population is under 35 – will increasingly determine India’s future. He has prudently chosen education, health, infrastructure and agriculture as the top priorities after winning a second term in office last year.
He is simultaneously pushing forward the country’s interlinkages, striking free trade deals with Asean and South Korea, and negotiating another with the EU.
The resilience of the economy rests on a huge domestic market, and, unlike many Asian counterparts, a limited reliance on exports, which are less than 20 per cent of gross domestic product. While domestic demand was largely uninterrupted by the financial crisis, export sectors, such as diamond cutting and polishing, pharmaceuticals and textiles, suffered precipitous declines and are only now recovering.
Foreign capital flows and valuations on Sensex, the benchmark index on the Bombay Stock Exchange, bounced back rather quicker as investors seek returns from one of the brightest poles of economic activity.
Mergers and acquisitions activity is also set to rise. Cash-rich companies are weighing purchases in recession hit Europe, the US and other emerging markets.
A fast-growing economy, albeit with a strong internal motor, will hasten globalisation. The industrial sector is expanding at a double-digit rate, services, 55 per cent of GDP, are not far behind. Only agriculture, dented by a poor monsoon and representing 20 per cent of GDP, lags.
But there are still plenty of obstacles in the way of an open economy. “A racing car with the handbrake on,” is how one visiting politician describes the drag of over-regulation, red tape, vested interests and decrepit infrastructure.
Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s former prime minister, identifies failure to follow China’s focus on infrastructure as one of the biggest handicaps to India’s global integration.
The confident mood across Asia has led many international business leaders to comment on the stark contrast between the ambitions of large developing economies and the more introspective, punishing mood in the west.
Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank, is one. “We all look to India now as a rising global economic power and in our interconnected world it has played a helpful role over the tough moments of the past year, not just during the discussions of the G20, but also in how it has steered [its] recovery,” says the former US Trade Representative, who once locked horns with India in trade talks.
International partners are beating a path to the door, lured by the promise of a drive towards manufacturing to add to the momentum achieved by a globalised services industry.
“In the caricature of the global economy,” says Lord Mandelson, the UK’s secretary for business. “China makes it, America buys it, India provides the after sales customer service and Britain does the structured finance.” That formulation is changing.
“India stands at a critical point in its transformation,” he says. “A young population is eager for change and the freedom to realise this global ambition. If India’s initial growth was driven by low-cost and low-value service provision, the next wave will be tied to rising value-added technology-driven manufacturing and services.”
This next wave has already arrived. The IT outsourcing sector – the likes of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Wipro and Infosys – and automotive industry – including Hero Honda, Bharat Forge and Tata Motors – are innovating and adopting technologies to create a global “footprint”.
N Chandrasekaran, the chief executive of TCS, says the downturn in the west has opened up greater opportunities in IT outsourcing and business processing.
But he lays emphasis on developing new capabilities, products and business models to remain relevant to clients and move into new countries. “When offshoring itself was first proposed, no one believed it was a business model,” he recalls.
The confidence in the growing economy has permeated other areas too. Over the past year, India has sought to play a greater leadership role in multilateral forums debating trade, climate change and reforming the global financial architecture.
Next month’s national budget will be a test of whether the Congress party-led government can make the most of the post-crisis period and a strong victory in last year's polls, by embarking on structural reform.
Business groups are lobbying for liberalisation of the defence, retail and financial services sectors, labour market reform and state disinvestments to help sustain growth projections.
The Reserve Bank of India, the central bank, meanwhile, is renewing efforts to broaden financial inclusion, and reach out to the unbanked masses.
In the shorter term, rebuilding foreign exchange reserves, allowing the rupee to appreciate to help cool inflation, while maintaining a partially open capital account are the priorities.
Some believe that the country’s economic fortitude is derived from its isolation and a protective shield of regulation, forged over decades of socialist policies and entrenched local business interests.
But the benefits of a greater share of world trade, remittance flows close to $50bn a year and the appeal of foreign capital inflows are shaping policy.
“India was less affected by the crisis than the rest of the world, not because it was isolated but because its capitalist fundamentals are strong,” argues Shashi Tharoor, the minister of state for external affairs and former United Nations official. “India will not return to the economics of nationalism which equated political independence with economic self-sufficiency.”
The embrace of the outside world, however, will be anything but rushed. On this, Mr Singh has the last word: “It is probably true that we are a slow-moving elephant but it is equally true that with each step forward we leave behind a deep imprint. There is a price that we pay in trying to carry all sections of our people along ... It is perhaps a price worth paying.”
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Greece loses EU voting power in blow to sovereignty
The European Union has shown its righteous wrath by stripping Greece of its vote at a crucial meeting next month, the worst humiliation ever suffered by an EU member state.
The council of EU finance ministers said Athens must comply with austerity demands by March 16 or lose control over its own tax and spend policies altogether. It if fails to do so, the EU will itself impose cuts under the draconian Article 126.9 of the Lisbon Treaty in what would amount to economic suzerainty.
While the symbolic move to suspend Greece of its voting rights at one meeting makes no practical difference, it marks a constitutional watershed and represents a crushing loss of sovereignty.
"We certainly won't let them off the hook," said Austria's finance minister, Josef Proll, echoing views shared by colleagues in Northern Europe. Some German officials have called for Greece to be denied a vote in all EU matter until it emerges from "receivership".
The EU has still refused to reveal details of how it might help Greece raise €30bn (£26bn) from global debt markets by the end of June. Investors are unsure whether this is part of Kabuki play of "constructive ambiguity" to pressure Greece and keep markets guessing, or reflects the deep reluctance by Germany to be drawn deeper in an EU fiscal union. Greek bonds sold off as ten-year yields jumped to 6.42pc, but the euro rallied to $1.3765 against the dollar as broader issues resurfaced in currency markets.
Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Eurogroup, hinted that ministers have already agreed on a support mechanism, should it be necessary. It will most likely involve by bilateral aid by eurozone states. He said proposals for an IMF bailout - backed by Britain - were "absurd" and would shatter the credibility of monetary union.
Many Germans disagree, including Otmar Issing, once the backbone of the European Central Bank. He said an EU rescue for Greece would be fatal, arguing that unflinching rigour is the only way to hold monetary union together without political union.
Tuesday's EU verdict amounted to a thumbs down on Greece's earlier austerity efforts, viewed as too reliant on one-off measures and too light on spending cuts. Greece must reduce its deficit from 12.7pc of GDP to 3pc in three years. Greek customs officials expressed their anger by kicking off a three-day strike, the first of many stoppages set to culminate in a general strike next week.
However, premier George Papandreou has won support from key political parties and a majority of the people. Greece may yet surprise critics by mustering its Spartan Spirit.
The council of EU finance ministers said Athens must comply with austerity demands by March 16 or lose control over its own tax and spend policies altogether. It if fails to do so, the EU will itself impose cuts under the draconian Article 126.9 of the Lisbon Treaty in what would amount to economic suzerainty.
While the symbolic move to suspend Greece of its voting rights at one meeting makes no practical difference, it marks a constitutional watershed and represents a crushing loss of sovereignty.
"We certainly won't let them off the hook," said Austria's finance minister, Josef Proll, echoing views shared by colleagues in Northern Europe. Some German officials have called for Greece to be denied a vote in all EU matter until it emerges from "receivership".
The EU has still refused to reveal details of how it might help Greece raise €30bn (£26bn) from global debt markets by the end of June. Investors are unsure whether this is part of Kabuki play of "constructive ambiguity" to pressure Greece and keep markets guessing, or reflects the deep reluctance by Germany to be drawn deeper in an EU fiscal union. Greek bonds sold off as ten-year yields jumped to 6.42pc, but the euro rallied to $1.3765 against the dollar as broader issues resurfaced in currency markets.
Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the Eurogroup, hinted that ministers have already agreed on a support mechanism, should it be necessary. It will most likely involve by bilateral aid by eurozone states. He said proposals for an IMF bailout - backed by Britain - were "absurd" and would shatter the credibility of monetary union.
Many Germans disagree, including Otmar Issing, once the backbone of the European Central Bank. He said an EU rescue for Greece would be fatal, arguing that unflinching rigour is the only way to hold monetary union together without political union.
Tuesday's EU verdict amounted to a thumbs down on Greece's earlier austerity efforts, viewed as too reliant on one-off measures and too light on spending cuts. Greece must reduce its deficit from 12.7pc of GDP to 3pc in three years. Greek customs officials expressed their anger by kicking off a three-day strike, the first of many stoppages set to culminate in a general strike next week.
However, premier George Papandreou has won support from key political parties and a majority of the people. Greece may yet surprise critics by mustering its Spartan Spirit.
Japan retains title as world's second biggest economy
Japan retained its title as the world's number two economy in 2009, ahead of China, extending a recovery from a brutal recession with a robust fourth-quarter performance, data showed Monday.
But China, which grew at 8.7pc last year, came close to unseating its neighbour from the position it has held for more than 40 years.
Japan's economy grew 1.1pc in October-December from the previous quarter, for an annualised pace of 4.6pc, the government reported.
For the whole of 2009, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 5pc as exports and factory output collapsed during the global economic downturn, the data showed.
Despite the severe contraction, Japan stayed just ahead of China as the world's second-largest economy.
Japan posted nominal GDP of about 5.08 trillion dollars last year, based on the average dollar-yen exchange rate for 2009, the data showed.
China reported last month nominal GDP of about 4.9 trillion dollars for 2009.
But with China expected to enjoy another year of strong growth in 2010, Japan risks ending this year in third place worldwide as it struggles to cope with renewed deflation and a shrinking population, analysts said.
"China's population is 10 times larger than that of Japan. It's quite natural for China to overtake Japan in the face of rapid globalisation," said Toru Shimano, economist at Okasan Securities.
In terms of per capita GDP, China - with a population of more than 1.3 billion people - trails far behind Japan, with about 128 million.
China returned to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 with a red-hot expansion of 10.7pc.
Without China's boom, Japan's economy would be even more sluggish given that the two are major trading partners, analysts said.
Comparisons between the two countries are complicated by exchange rate fluctuations. If the yen weakens further, that could hasten China's ascent to world's number two behind the United States.
But China, which grew at 8.7pc last year, came close to unseating its neighbour from the position it has held for more than 40 years.
Japan's economy grew 1.1pc in October-December from the previous quarter, for an annualised pace of 4.6pc, the government reported.
For the whole of 2009, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 5pc as exports and factory output collapsed during the global economic downturn, the data showed.
Despite the severe contraction, Japan stayed just ahead of China as the world's second-largest economy.
Japan posted nominal GDP of about 5.08 trillion dollars last year, based on the average dollar-yen exchange rate for 2009, the data showed.
China reported last month nominal GDP of about 4.9 trillion dollars for 2009.
But with China expected to enjoy another year of strong growth in 2010, Japan risks ending this year in third place worldwide as it struggles to cope with renewed deflation and a shrinking population, analysts said.
"China's population is 10 times larger than that of Japan. It's quite natural for China to overtake Japan in the face of rapid globalisation," said Toru Shimano, economist at Okasan Securities.
In terms of per capita GDP, China - with a population of more than 1.3 billion people - trails far behind Japan, with about 128 million.
China returned to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 with a red-hot expansion of 10.7pc.
Without China's boom, Japan's economy would be even more sluggish given that the two are major trading partners, analysts said.
Comparisons between the two countries are complicated by exchange rate fluctuations. If the yen weakens further, that could hasten China's ascent to world's number two behind the United States.
Sir Richard Branson says Britain's deficit is a serious risk to recovery
Although the Virgin Group boss insisted he is still apolitical, his comments followed a private meeting last week with David Cameron and George Osborne in which he told the Conservative leaders that he agreed with their plans to cut the deficit immediately.
Sir Richard told The Daily Telegraph: "I believe the UK's record budget deficit does pose a serious risk to our economy's recovery – you only have to look at some other countries to see that.
"It would be deeply damaging to Britain if we lost the confidence of the global financial markets through delayed action and saw interest rates have to go up steeply.”
He added: “The next Government, whatever party that is, must set out a credible plan to reduce the bulk of the deficit over a Parliament by cutting wasteful spending and must not put off those tough decisions to next year.”
The Government has said it would not begin to pay off the deficit until 2011, arguing that withdrawing the fiscal stimulus too early would damage the recovery.
In one of the key points of difference between the two main parties in the run up to the General Election, the Conservatives have said they would hold an emergency budget within the first 50 days that would introduce spending cuts this year. However, more recently Mr Cameron said there would not be "swingeing cuts" immediately.
Sir Richard has joined other business and economic leaders in calling for even faster action on Britain’s debt problem.
At the weekend a group of 20 senior economists signed a letter saying their was "a compelling case" for the first measures to cut the deficit straight after the election.
The signatories included the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England and head of the Financial Services Authority, and a former permanent secretary to the Treasury and cabinet secretary.
The letter said: "In order to be credible, the Government's goal should be to eliminate the structural current budget deficit over the course of a parliament, and there is a compelling case, all else equal, for the first measures beginning to take effect in the 2010-11 fiscal year."
Sir Richard said that failure to act would “threaten to undermine the confidence of international and UK business, UK consumers and the global financial markets.”
He said: “As an entrepreneur I know that could cost jobs and reduce investment in Britain. We must send a clear signal that we have the issues in hand and a clear strategy for UK plc."
Sir Richard told The Daily Telegraph: "I believe the UK's record budget deficit does pose a serious risk to our economy's recovery – you only have to look at some other countries to see that.
"It would be deeply damaging to Britain if we lost the confidence of the global financial markets through delayed action and saw interest rates have to go up steeply.”
He added: “The next Government, whatever party that is, must set out a credible plan to reduce the bulk of the deficit over a Parliament by cutting wasteful spending and must not put off those tough decisions to next year.”
The Government has said it would not begin to pay off the deficit until 2011, arguing that withdrawing the fiscal stimulus too early would damage the recovery.
In one of the key points of difference between the two main parties in the run up to the General Election, the Conservatives have said they would hold an emergency budget within the first 50 days that would introduce spending cuts this year. However, more recently Mr Cameron said there would not be "swingeing cuts" immediately.
Sir Richard has joined other business and economic leaders in calling for even faster action on Britain’s debt problem.
At the weekend a group of 20 senior economists signed a letter saying their was "a compelling case" for the first measures to cut the deficit straight after the election.
The signatories included the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England and head of the Financial Services Authority, and a former permanent secretary to the Treasury and cabinet secretary.
The letter said: "In order to be credible, the Government's goal should be to eliminate the structural current budget deficit over the course of a parliament, and there is a compelling case, all else equal, for the first measures beginning to take effect in the 2010-11 fiscal year."
Sir Richard said that failure to act would “threaten to undermine the confidence of international and UK business, UK consumers and the global financial markets.”
He said: “As an entrepreneur I know that could cost jobs and reduce investment in Britain. We must send a clear signal that we have the issues in hand and a clear strategy for UK plc."
Friday, February 12, 2010
महा शिवरात्रि
Auspicious festival of Mahashivaratri falls on the 13th or the 14th night of the new moon during Krishna Paksha in the Hindu month of Phalgun. The Sanskrit term, Krishna Paksha means the period of waning moon or the dark fortnight and Phalguna corresponds to the month of February - March in English Calendar. Shivaratri Festival is celebrated on a moonless night.
According to Hindu mythology, Shivaratri or 'Shiva's Great Night' symbolizes the wedding day of Lord Shiva and Parvati. Many however, believe, Shivaratri is the night when Lord Shiva performed the Tandava Nritya - the dance of primordial creation, preservation and destruction. Celebrating the festival in a customary manner, devotees give a ritual bath to the Lingam with the panchagavya - milk, sour milk, urine, butter and dung. Celebrations of Shivaratri Festival mainly take place at night. Devotees of Lord Shiva throng Shiva temples across the country and spend ‘the Night of Lord Shiva’ by chanting verses and hymns in praise of the Lord. The festival holds special meaning for the ladies. They pray to Goddess Parvati also called 'Gaura', the giver of 'suhag' for good husbands, marital bliss and a long and prosperous married life.
According to Hindu mythology, Shivaratri or 'Shiva's Great Night' symbolizes the wedding day of Lord Shiva and Parvati. Many however, believe, Shivaratri is the night when Lord Shiva performed the Tandava Nritya - the dance of primordial creation, preservation and destruction. Celebrating the festival in a customary manner, devotees give a ritual bath to the Lingam with the panchagavya - milk, sour milk, urine, butter and dung. Celebrations of Shivaratri Festival mainly take place at night. Devotees of Lord Shiva throng Shiva temples across the country and spend ‘the Night of Lord Shiva’ by chanting verses and hymns in praise of the Lord. The festival holds special meaning for the ladies. They pray to Goddess Parvati also called 'Gaura', the giver of 'suhag' for good husbands, marital bliss and a long and prosperous married life.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
India has got a spy in the sky
Bangalore: India is going to put up an eye in the sky to boost its military intelligence. The spycraft, called the Communication-Centric Intelligence Satellite (CCI-Sat), will be operational by 2014 and will keep a watch on the trouble spots in the neighbourhood, especially China and Pakistan.
Developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the CCI-Sat is India’s first original spy satellite. It will be launched by the Indian Space Research Organisation within the next four years.
The CCI-Sat is capable of picking images and supporting communication (conversation between two satellite phones, for instance), besides surveillance. “The satellite will orbit Earth at an altitude of 500km and will cover hostile regions in India’s neighbourhood by passing on the surveillance data to the intelligence,” said G Bhoopathy, the director of the Defence Electronic Research Laboratory (DLRL), the lab that is working on the satellite.
“The focus is now space, we have to equip ourselves for electronic warfare from space too,” he said. The satellite will be equipped with synthetic aperture radar to take high resolution images of the target regions. Pegged at Rs100 crore, the satellite design and development will be made by the ISRO while the payload will be built by the DLRL. “We are in discussions with the ISRO at the moment,” Bhoopathy said.
India, with its Technology Experiment Satellite (TES), is already among the nations that have spy satellites. These include the US, Russia and Japan.
TES, which was launched in 2001, helped the US army with high-resolution images during the 9/11 counter against the
Taliban.
Besides TES, ISRO’s Cartosat series of satellites and the Radar Imaging Satellite (Risat-2) can also be used for surveillance and espionage. But the CCI-Sat is the first 100% spy satellite of India.
“This satellite will be much better than Risat-2,” Bhoopathy said.
ISRO is also planning to launch the Gsat-7 satellite to boost communication system for the Indian Navy. This would be launched later this year.
Developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the CCI-Sat is India’s first original spy satellite. It will be launched by the Indian Space Research Organisation within the next four years.
The CCI-Sat is capable of picking images and supporting communication (conversation between two satellite phones, for instance), besides surveillance. “The satellite will orbit Earth at an altitude of 500km and will cover hostile regions in India’s neighbourhood by passing on the surveillance data to the intelligence,” said G Bhoopathy, the director of the Defence Electronic Research Laboratory (DLRL), the lab that is working on the satellite.
“The focus is now space, we have to equip ourselves for electronic warfare from space too,” he said. The satellite will be equipped with synthetic aperture radar to take high resolution images of the target regions. Pegged at Rs100 crore, the satellite design and development will be made by the ISRO while the payload will be built by the DLRL. “We are in discussions with the ISRO at the moment,” Bhoopathy said.
India, with its Technology Experiment Satellite (TES), is already among the nations that have spy satellites. These include the US, Russia and Japan.
TES, which was launched in 2001, helped the US army with high-resolution images during the 9/11 counter against the
Taliban.
Besides TES, ISRO’s Cartosat series of satellites and the Radar Imaging Satellite (Risat-2) can also be used for surveillance and espionage. But the CCI-Sat is the first 100% spy satellite of India.
“This satellite will be much better than Risat-2,” Bhoopathy said.
ISRO is also planning to launch the Gsat-7 satellite to boost communication system for the Indian Navy. This would be launched later this year.
Saturday, February 06, 2010
India's FX reserves at $280.955 bln as on Jan. 29
MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $280.955 billion as on Jan. 29, from $282,938 billion a week earlier, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its weekly statistical supplement on Friday.
Changes in foreign currency assets, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of other currencies held in its reserves such as the euro, pound sterling and yen, the central bank said.
Foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Reserve Bank of India said.
Changes in foreign currency assets, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of other currencies held in its reserves such as the euro, pound sterling and yen, the central bank said.
Foreign exchange reserves include India's Reserve Tranche position in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Reserve Bank of India said.
Friday, February 05, 2010
Trichet Struggles to Convince on Euro-Area Solidity
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet is struggling to convince investors that the euro region shouldn’t be punished for Greece’s budget problems.
As Greece tries to control a record deficit and stem a slide in its bonds, Trichet said the economy of the 16-nation euro area is solid and its budget shortfall will probably be smaller than those of the U.S. and Japan this year. The comments yesterday didn’t stop Spanish and Portuguese stocks from dropping on concern they are in a similar predicament to Greece or the euro from tumbling to a nine-month low against the dollar.
Trichet “did not convince me,” said Stuart Thomson, who helps manage $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, Scotland. “Where does he think the Greek, Spanish and Portuguese economies will be three years from now? Their austerity measures will weigh on the euro area as a whole.”
Trichet has been forced to fend off questions about the survival of the euro as investors doubt Greece’s ability to cut its deficit from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product to below the European Union’s 3 percent limit. As concern spreads to Spain and Portugal’s rising debt burdens, Trichet will try to stress the need for fiscal prudence without inflaming skepticism that it can be achieved.
“Something has to happen to turn credibility around,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, head of Market Economics at BNP Paribas in London. “The market’s just saying it’s not believable. It might have to get worse before it gets better.”
Markets Shudder
Spanish stocks dropped the most in 15 months yesterday and Portugal led declines in government bonds. Increasing concern about sovereign creditworthiness contributed to a rout in shares that spread across the globe, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index closing down 3.1 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index losing 2.5 percent as of 1:53 p.m. Hong Kong time.
The euro fell as low as $1.3669 today and traded at $1.3706 at 2:54 p.m. in Tokyo. It has declined about 9 percent since Nov. 25.
Greek bonds have tumbled in the past two months, pushing the yield on the country’s 10-year debt above 7 percent, the highest since 1999, the year the euro was introduced. The premium investors charge to hold Greek 10-year bonds over the benchmark German bund has widened to 356 basis points, about 10 times what it was two years ago.
No Rush at ECB
The ECB yesterday left its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent and Trichet signaled the bank is in no rush to raise borrowing costs as the economy recovers gradually from its worst recession since World War II.
Still, Trichet said the “solidity” of the euro area “is not necessarily very well known” and its situation compares “very flatteringly with a number of other industrialized countries.”
The euro-area economy will grow 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011, according to the ECB’s December forecasts. It contracted 4 percent last year, the European Commission estimates.
“Trichet is still trying to persuade markets that they should be looking at the euro area as a whole, which does not look that bad, rather than at individual countries, some of which look extremely fragile,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit SpA in London.
Ballooning Debt
Spain’s public debt will rise to 74 percent of GDP by 2011 from 54 percent last year, according to European Commission forecasts. Greece’s debt will increase to 135 percent of GDP from 113 percent, and Portugal’s will increase to 91 percent from 77 percent, the EU estimates.
Greece’s consolidation plans, which call for about 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) of spending cuts and revenue increases this year, are more ambitious than any budget reduction achieved by euro-region countries since the 1970s, according to ING Group.
Papandreou told reporters today in New Delhi that Greece has no plans to put in place new measures to cut its budget deficit. He said the steps already announced are “credible,” adding that the nation has substantial funds available from the European Union.
Greece’s biggest union yesterday approved a second mass strike this month to protest the spending cuts and tax collectors began a 48-hour walkout, illustrating the difficulty Prime Minister George Papandreou faces in implementing his plan.
“We expect and we are confident that the Greek government will take all the decisions that will permit them to reach that goal,” Trichet said. Additional proposals announced by Greece this week to freeze public-sector wages and revamp the pension system “are steps in the right direction,” he said.
As Greece tries to control a record deficit and stem a slide in its bonds, Trichet said the economy of the 16-nation euro area is solid and its budget shortfall will probably be smaller than those of the U.S. and Japan this year. The comments yesterday didn’t stop Spanish and Portuguese stocks from dropping on concern they are in a similar predicament to Greece or the euro from tumbling to a nine-month low against the dollar.
Trichet “did not convince me,” said Stuart Thomson, who helps manage $100 billion at Ignis Asset Management in Glasgow, Scotland. “Where does he think the Greek, Spanish and Portuguese economies will be three years from now? Their austerity measures will weigh on the euro area as a whole.”
Trichet has been forced to fend off questions about the survival of the euro as investors doubt Greece’s ability to cut its deficit from 12.7 percent of gross domestic product to below the European Union’s 3 percent limit. As concern spreads to Spain and Portugal’s rising debt burdens, Trichet will try to stress the need for fiscal prudence without inflaming skepticism that it can be achieved.
“Something has to happen to turn credibility around,” said Paul Mortimer-Lee, head of Market Economics at BNP Paribas in London. “The market’s just saying it’s not believable. It might have to get worse before it gets better.”
Markets Shudder
Spanish stocks dropped the most in 15 months yesterday and Portugal led declines in government bonds. Increasing concern about sovereign creditworthiness contributed to a rout in shares that spread across the globe, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index closing down 3.1 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index losing 2.5 percent as of 1:53 p.m. Hong Kong time.
The euro fell as low as $1.3669 today and traded at $1.3706 at 2:54 p.m. in Tokyo. It has declined about 9 percent since Nov. 25.
Greek bonds have tumbled in the past two months, pushing the yield on the country’s 10-year debt above 7 percent, the highest since 1999, the year the euro was introduced. The premium investors charge to hold Greek 10-year bonds over the benchmark German bund has widened to 356 basis points, about 10 times what it was two years ago.
No Rush at ECB
The ECB yesterday left its benchmark rate at a record low of 1 percent and Trichet signaled the bank is in no rush to raise borrowing costs as the economy recovers gradually from its worst recession since World War II.
Still, Trichet said the “solidity” of the euro area “is not necessarily very well known” and its situation compares “very flatteringly with a number of other industrialized countries.”
The euro-area economy will grow 0.8 percent this year and 1.2 percent in 2011, according to the ECB’s December forecasts. It contracted 4 percent last year, the European Commission estimates.
“Trichet is still trying to persuade markets that they should be looking at the euro area as a whole, which does not look that bad, rather than at individual countries, some of which look extremely fragile,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit SpA in London.
Ballooning Debt
Spain’s public debt will rise to 74 percent of GDP by 2011 from 54 percent last year, according to European Commission forecasts. Greece’s debt will increase to 135 percent of GDP from 113 percent, and Portugal’s will increase to 91 percent from 77 percent, the EU estimates.
Greece’s consolidation plans, which call for about 10 billion euros ($13.7 billion) of spending cuts and revenue increases this year, are more ambitious than any budget reduction achieved by euro-region countries since the 1970s, according to ING Group.
Papandreou told reporters today in New Delhi that Greece has no plans to put in place new measures to cut its budget deficit. He said the steps already announced are “credible,” adding that the nation has substantial funds available from the European Union.
Greece’s biggest union yesterday approved a second mass strike this month to protest the spending cuts and tax collectors began a 48-hour walkout, illustrating the difficulty Prime Minister George Papandreou faces in implementing his plan.
“We expect and we are confident that the Greek government will take all the decisions that will permit them to reach that goal,” Trichet said. Additional proposals announced by Greece this week to freeze public-sector wages and revamp the pension system “are steps in the right direction,” he said.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Food inflation picks up pace; govt steps seen
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Annual food inflation picked-up pace for the second consecutive week, strengthening the case for more fiscal steps in the federal budget to tame prices after the Reserve Bank tightened monetary policy last week.
Analysts said any hike in petrol and diesel prices as suggested by a government panel on Wednesday would further drive broader inflation.
High food prices, resulting in part from a poor harvest of summer-sown crops after the worst monsoon in nearly three decades, are spilling into broader inflation, which some economists say could reach double-digits by the end of the fiscal year in March.
"If fuel prices are freed, that will lead to increase in fuel, food and wholesale price inflation, though politically I don't see that happening as of now," said Bibek Debroy, an economist at Centre for Policy Research, a Delhi-based think tank.
The food price index rose 17.56 percent in the 12 months to Jan. 23, higher than an annual rise of 17.40 percent in the previous week, data released on Thursday showed.
The fuel index rose to an annual 5.88 percent, higher than an annual rise of 5.70 percent in the previous week.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, under pressure over high food prices, has scheduled a meeting of state chief ministers on Saturday to discuss steps to contain prices.
The Reserve Bank, which raised banks' cash reserve ratio by a higher-than-expected 75 basis points in its quarterly monetary review on Jan. 29, lifted its wholesale price index inflation forecast for end-March to 8.5 percent.
It also said it expected inflation to moderate starting in July, assuming a normal monsoon and global oil prices holding at current levels.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who will present his budget for 2010/11 on Feb. 26, is expected to partially withdraw fiscal stimulus announced last year, while announcing more measures to contain food prices.
Policymakers say the government could increase fund allocation for the farm sector, rural infrastructure and tax incentives to the food processing industry to increase supplies in the market.
The finance ministry's chief economic adviser, Kaushik Basu, said last week that inflation was spreading to other sectors, but added that it would not go out of control.
India's economy is expected to expand by 7 percent in the current fiscal year to end-March, faster than 6.7 percent last year, helped by a recovering global economy and rapid expansion in domestic industrial output, a Reuters poll showed last month.
The economy grew 7.9 percent in the quarter through September, its fastest in 18 months, while industrial production grew in November at its fastest pace in more than two years at 11.7 percent.
Analysts said any hike in petrol and diesel prices as suggested by a government panel on Wednesday would further drive broader inflation.
High food prices, resulting in part from a poor harvest of summer-sown crops after the worst monsoon in nearly three decades, are spilling into broader inflation, which some economists say could reach double-digits by the end of the fiscal year in March.
"If fuel prices are freed, that will lead to increase in fuel, food and wholesale price inflation, though politically I don't see that happening as of now," said Bibek Debroy, an economist at Centre for Policy Research, a Delhi-based think tank.
The food price index rose 17.56 percent in the 12 months to Jan. 23, higher than an annual rise of 17.40 percent in the previous week, data released on Thursday showed.
The fuel index rose to an annual 5.88 percent, higher than an annual rise of 5.70 percent in the previous week.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, under pressure over high food prices, has scheduled a meeting of state chief ministers on Saturday to discuss steps to contain prices.
The Reserve Bank, which raised banks' cash reserve ratio by a higher-than-expected 75 basis points in its quarterly monetary review on Jan. 29, lifted its wholesale price index inflation forecast for end-March to 8.5 percent.
It also said it expected inflation to moderate starting in July, assuming a normal monsoon and global oil prices holding at current levels.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who will present his budget for 2010/11 on Feb. 26, is expected to partially withdraw fiscal stimulus announced last year, while announcing more measures to contain food prices.
Policymakers say the government could increase fund allocation for the farm sector, rural infrastructure and tax incentives to the food processing industry to increase supplies in the market.
The finance ministry's chief economic adviser, Kaushik Basu, said last week that inflation was spreading to other sectors, but added that it would not go out of control.
India's economy is expected to expand by 7 percent in the current fiscal year to end-March, faster than 6.7 percent last year, helped by a recovering global economy and rapid expansion in domestic industrial output, a Reuters poll showed last month.
The economy grew 7.9 percent in the quarter through September, its fastest in 18 months, while industrial production grew in November at its fastest pace in more than two years at 11.7 percent.
Morgan Stanley raises India FY11 growth f'cast to 8.5 pct
MUMBAI (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 8.5 percent in 2010/11 from 8 percent earlier, citing a pick-up in domestic consumption and said interest rates would climb as inflation accelerates.
"The key driver for this higher growth will be domestic demand, particularly investments," the investment bank said in a research note on Thursday.
The stronger growth will be followed by higher inflation and policy rates, it said.
It forecast the reverse repo rate, the central bank's main short-term borrowing rate, to rise by 175 basis points in calendar 2010 from its earlier projection of 150 basis points increase. The reverse repo is currently at 3.25 percent.
Last week, the Indian central bank kept key rates unchanged but raised banks' cash reserve requirement, signalling it aimed to rein in the loose monetary policy that was put in place to head off the impact from the global slowdown.
Morgan Stanley also revised its gross domestic product growth forecast for 2009/10 to 7.1 percent from 6.7 percent earlier.
The Reserve Bank of India had last week raised its 2009/10 GDP projection to 7.5 percent from 6 percent earlier.
The U.S. investment bank has raised its non-food inflation expectation to an average 5.5 percent in 2010/11 from 4.5 percent earlier on build-up of domestic demand pressures.
It projected the Indian economy to grow 8.4 percent in 2011/12 from its previous projection of 7.6 percent.
"The key driver for this higher growth will be domestic demand, particularly investments," the investment bank said in a research note on Thursday.
The stronger growth will be followed by higher inflation and policy rates, it said.
It forecast the reverse repo rate, the central bank's main short-term borrowing rate, to rise by 175 basis points in calendar 2010 from its earlier projection of 150 basis points increase. The reverse repo is currently at 3.25 percent.
Last week, the Indian central bank kept key rates unchanged but raised banks' cash reserve requirement, signalling it aimed to rein in the loose monetary policy that was put in place to head off the impact from the global slowdown.
Morgan Stanley also revised its gross domestic product growth forecast for 2009/10 to 7.1 percent from 6.7 percent earlier.
The Reserve Bank of India had last week raised its 2009/10 GDP projection to 7.5 percent from 6 percent earlier.
The U.S. investment bank has raised its non-food inflation expectation to an average 5.5 percent in 2010/11 from 4.5 percent earlier on build-up of domestic demand pressures.
It projected the Indian economy to grow 8.4 percent in 2011/12 from its previous projection of 7.6 percent.
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
China to Raise Resource Acquisitions as Car, Home Sales Jump
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s largest metal consumer, will add to last year’s record $32 billion spending on resource acquisitions as demand for iron ore, copper and oil soars with the fastest economic growth since 2007.
Chinese companies will hunt for iron ore, coal, oil, copper and gold assets, said Jing Ulrich, the chairwoman of China equities and commodities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong.
China Minmetals Corp. and China Petrochemical Corp. led an acquisition spree last year, as companies snapped up zinc mines in Australia, oil reserves in Nigeria, and gold deposits in the Philippines. Owning resources will give China more control over pricing and reduce its dependence on suppliers including BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company.
“There are still many opportunities for mergers and acquisitions overseas this year, even though asset valuations would be much higher,” Huang Dongmei, deputy general manager at Minmetals Exploration and Development Co., a unit of China Minmetals, said by phone from Beijing. “We’re considering several projects,” Huang said, without giving details.
Aluminum Corp. of China, the nation’s largest maker of the metal, will “utilize all its resources and energy” to speed up acquisitions this year, Chairman Xiong Weiping told staff in a speech posted on its Web site on Jan. 25.
The state-owned company was rebuffed in June by Rio Tinto Group from investing $19.5 billion in the world’s second-biggest iron ore supplier amid objections from shareholders and Australian politicians. The Beijing-based company is London- based Rio’s largest shareholder.
Record Imports
China’s imports of iron ore, copper and oil leapt to records in 2009, as demand from carmakers and builders including Volkswagen AG and China Vanke Co. expanded.
The economy grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since 2007, on the $586 billion stimulus spending and record lending.
“You’ll have a lot more Beijings and Shanghais coming up over the next 20 and 30 years and to feed all of that, the amount of iron and steel is huge,” said Eric Lilford, head of Australia mining at Deloitte Corporate Finance in Perth. Chinese demand “has been relatively strong even during the global financial crisis and it’s stronger now.”
China’s refined copper demand may jump 14.8 percent to 6.81 million metric tons this year, said Qu Yi, a Beijing-based analyst at CRU International Ltd. Iron ore imports may rise 27 percent to 800 million tons by 2012, up from the record last year, as steel consumption surges, researcher Umetal.com said.
Rising Investments
Before the global recession last year depressed asset prices, China’s investments in overseas resource and energy companies rose every year but one from just $578 million in 2004, according to Bloomberg data.
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., a unit of China’s fourth- largest coal producer, bought Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for A$3.5 billion ($3.1 billion). China Petrochemical purchased Addax Petroleum Corp. for C$8.3 billion ($7.8 billion) last year to add oil reserves.
Minmetals, the nation’s largest metals trader, agreed in June to pay $1.4 billion for most of the assets of OZ Minerals Ltd., then the world’s second-largest zinc producer.
‘The total size of such deals is expected to reach a new record,” said Li Luhui, a Beijing-based analyst with Zero2IPO, a research company which counts China’s National Council for Social Security Fund as a client. “The Chinese government will continue to support large state-owned companies with related policies and capital to go overseas.”
Energy Targets
China may focus on energy targets in South America and Central Asia, and metals in Africa this year, Li said. Smaller companies may struggle to raise funds as the government seeks to curb lending, Li said.
China’s $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, which pumped about $10 billion into commodity-related companies in the second half of 2009, is in “early talks” for investments in Brazil, the world’s second-biggest iron ore exporter, and Mexico, Chairman Lou Jiwei said Jan. 20.
Chinese companies weren’t all successful last year, with Rio preferring to sell shares instead of taking up Aluminum Corp.’s offer. Australia also barred China Non-Ferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co. from buying a majority stake in rare-earth producer Lynas Corp.
“Since political sensitivities may complicate larger resource acquisitions, transactions involving smaller target firms may prove appealing,” JPMorgan’s Ulrich said.
Prices of copper more than doubled last year and oil surged 78 percent. Contract iron ore prices may rise 31 percent to the second-highest on record this year, according to a mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Deals this year may be harder as valuations improve with better economic conditions and prices, said Xu Zhongbo, a professor with the University of Science & Technology in Beijing.
“China will retain its policy of encouraging companies to go abroad,” said Xu.
Chinese companies will hunt for iron ore, coal, oil, copper and gold assets, said Jing Ulrich, the chairwoman of China equities and commodities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong.
China Minmetals Corp. and China Petrochemical Corp. led an acquisition spree last year, as companies snapped up zinc mines in Australia, oil reserves in Nigeria, and gold deposits in the Philippines. Owning resources will give China more control over pricing and reduce its dependence on suppliers including BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company.
“There are still many opportunities for mergers and acquisitions overseas this year, even though asset valuations would be much higher,” Huang Dongmei, deputy general manager at Minmetals Exploration and Development Co., a unit of China Minmetals, said by phone from Beijing. “We’re considering several projects,” Huang said, without giving details.
Aluminum Corp. of China, the nation’s largest maker of the metal, will “utilize all its resources and energy” to speed up acquisitions this year, Chairman Xiong Weiping told staff in a speech posted on its Web site on Jan. 25.
The state-owned company was rebuffed in June by Rio Tinto Group from investing $19.5 billion in the world’s second-biggest iron ore supplier amid objections from shareholders and Australian politicians. The Beijing-based company is London- based Rio’s largest shareholder.
Record Imports
China’s imports of iron ore, copper and oil leapt to records in 2009, as demand from carmakers and builders including Volkswagen AG and China Vanke Co. expanded.
The economy grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since 2007, on the $586 billion stimulus spending and record lending.
“You’ll have a lot more Beijings and Shanghais coming up over the next 20 and 30 years and to feed all of that, the amount of iron and steel is huge,” said Eric Lilford, head of Australia mining at Deloitte Corporate Finance in Perth. Chinese demand “has been relatively strong even during the global financial crisis and it’s stronger now.”
China’s refined copper demand may jump 14.8 percent to 6.81 million metric tons this year, said Qu Yi, a Beijing-based analyst at CRU International Ltd. Iron ore imports may rise 27 percent to 800 million tons by 2012, up from the record last year, as steel consumption surges, researcher Umetal.com said.
Rising Investments
Before the global recession last year depressed asset prices, China’s investments in overseas resource and energy companies rose every year but one from just $578 million in 2004, according to Bloomberg data.
Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., a unit of China’s fourth- largest coal producer, bought Australia’s Felix Resources Ltd. for A$3.5 billion ($3.1 billion). China Petrochemical purchased Addax Petroleum Corp. for C$8.3 billion ($7.8 billion) last year to add oil reserves.
Minmetals, the nation’s largest metals trader, agreed in June to pay $1.4 billion for most of the assets of OZ Minerals Ltd., then the world’s second-largest zinc producer.
‘The total size of such deals is expected to reach a new record,” said Li Luhui, a Beijing-based analyst with Zero2IPO, a research company which counts China’s National Council for Social Security Fund as a client. “The Chinese government will continue to support large state-owned companies with related policies and capital to go overseas.”
Energy Targets
China may focus on energy targets in South America and Central Asia, and metals in Africa this year, Li said. Smaller companies may struggle to raise funds as the government seeks to curb lending, Li said.
China’s $300 billion sovereign wealth fund, which pumped about $10 billion into commodity-related companies in the second half of 2009, is in “early talks” for investments in Brazil, the world’s second-biggest iron ore exporter, and Mexico, Chairman Lou Jiwei said Jan. 20.
Chinese companies weren’t all successful last year, with Rio preferring to sell shares instead of taking up Aluminum Corp.’s offer. Australia also barred China Non-Ferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co. from buying a majority stake in rare-earth producer Lynas Corp.
“Since political sensitivities may complicate larger resource acquisitions, transactions involving smaller target firms may prove appealing,” JPMorgan’s Ulrich said.
Prices of copper more than doubled last year and oil surged 78 percent. Contract iron ore prices may rise 31 percent to the second-highest on record this year, according to a mean estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Deals this year may be harder as valuations improve with better economic conditions and prices, said Xu Zhongbo, a professor with the University of Science & Technology in Beijing.
“China will retain its policy of encouraging companies to go abroad,” said Xu.
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