MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET IS MIXED.MARKET WOULD OPEN FLAT,NIFTY RANGE FOR THE DAY IS 4800-4950-5050-5100 MARKET CONTINUE TO BE RANGE BOUND.MARKET SHOOT UP FASTLY CAUSE OF SHORT COVERING ALL OVER THE SECTOR.FOR LONG SIDE OIL GAS &BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICE IS LOOKS POSITIVE.IF MARKET DOES NOT SUSTAIN AT HIGH LEVEL GO SHORT IN METAL SPACE,BUT IT IS ADVISABLE TO TAKE LONG FROM 4800 LEVEL WITH A SL OF 4780.TOTAL MARKET ROLL OVER IS 31%,TOTAL OPENINTEREST N 65000 CR,PUT CALL RATIO IS .94 .GOOD ROLL OVER SEEN IN CEMENT SPACE ULTRATECH AND GRASIM.
HAVE NICE TRADING DAY

SECOND BIGGEST GAIN IN SENSEX

DATE CLOSE OPEN NET CHNG % CHANGE
25-Jan-08 18361.66 17221.74 1139.92 6.6
25-Mar-08 16217.49 15289.40 928.09 6.1
14-Nov-07 19929.06 19035.48 893.58 4.7
23-Oct-07 18492.84 17613.99 878.85 5.0
23-Jan-08 17594.10 16729.94 864.13 5.2

Dollar Falls on Speculation U.S. Consumer Confidence Is Waning

The dollar fell the most against the euro in two weeks on speculation industry reports will show U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a five-year low and the housing slump deepened.
The dollar dropped from a one-week high against the yen as Deutsche Bank AG economists joined those forecasting the economy will suffer a recession. The U.S. currency also weakened against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, favorite targets of so- called carry trades, as a rally in European and Asian stocks encouraged investors to buy higher-yielding assets.
``Interest rates will continue to come down and that means that the dollar is going to continue to weaken in the short term,'' said Peter Rosenstreich, the chief market analyst at ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA in Geneva. ``Our base case scenario is very much grounded in the U.S. going into recession and probably deeper and longer than we had expected.''
The dollar fell to $1.5544 per euro at 10:12 a.m. in London, the biggest drop since March 12 based on closing prices, from $1.5423 late yesterday in New York. It declined to 100.51 yen, from 100.74 yesterday. The euro rose to 156.24 yen, from 155.39. The pound gained to $1.9915 from $1.9855. The dollar will fall to $1.58 per euro in coming weeks, Rosenstreich forecast.
Against the Australian dollar, also known as the Aussie, the U.S. currency weakened to 91.36 U.S. cents, from 90.59 cents yesterday. It declined to 80.39 U.S. cents per New Zealand dollar from 79.77 cents and dropped 2.1 percent versus the Korean won, to 976.6.

Oil falls 1.5 per cent, nears $100 mark on profit taking

Oil fell by $1.50 to near the $100 a barrel mark on Monday, extending last week's deep losses as funds sought to lock in first-quarter profits and Saudi Arabia reassured consumers of its plans to boost supply. US light crude for May delivery fell $1.51 to $100.33 a barrel in Globex electronic trading by 0100 GMT. Prices dropped by nearly $9, about 8 percent, last week as investors fled the commodities complex on fears that gains had been overdone, giving a boost to the beleaguered dollar in the process.
London Brent crude fell $1.12 cents to $99.26. "I think there's still a lot of profit taking in the market and that is pushing down oil prices. The US dollar is also bouncing back from major currencies so that's adding to the downward pressure," said Tetsu Emori, a Tokyo-based fund manager at Astmax Co Ltd. "The market could also be reacting to comments from Saudi Arabia." Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it was working to expand its oil production and refinery capacity in order to maintain world economic growth, reaffirming its vow to invest tens of billions of dollars in new wells and infrastructure. "The kingdom will work with OPEC countries, other producers and consuming countries towards oil market stability and to avoid the effects of harmful speculation," the Supreme Council of Petroleum and Mineral Affairs said in a statement following a visit by US Vice President Dick Cheney. Washington has said it wants Saudi Arabia to help raise OPEC production to ease prices, but the producers' cartel has resisted pumping more crude due to fears of weakening demand

Tata Motors close to inking deal with Ford

Tata Motors is on the verge of making automotive history. After demonstrating it can build the world's cheapest car, it is now set to acquire the iconic Jaguar and Land Rover - brands that are among the most expensive in the world. Sources close to developments at the company said Tata Motors has signed an agreement with Ford for both brands and that an announcement is expected mid-week, perhaps as early as Tuesday or Wednesday. It is still unclear how much Tata Motors will pay for the acquisition. Speculation is that both companies have agreed to a value in the region of $2-3 billion. To meet fund requirements, a consortium of banks including JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, BNP Paribas, State Bank of India and Standard Chartered helped the Tatas raise $3 billion. Sources said that while a good part of this money would go towards funding the deal itself, the other part would be used to meet working capital requirements.

Certificate of Registration of 35 stock broker calcelled

The Securities and Exchange Board of India has cancelled the licences of 35 stock brokers of which 8 members belong to NSE and 27 members belong to OTCEI. These stock
brokers were expelled from their activities. It was alleged that these brokers had also failed to pay fees to SEBI. Consequent to the expulsion, they also failed to comply with one of the condition for the grant of certificate of registration as specified in 4(a) of Securities Exchange Board of India (Stock Brokers and Sub Brokers) Rules, 1992 (now repealed on September 07, 2006). Securities and Exchange Board of India (Stock Brokers and Sub-Brokers) Rules, 1992 is hereinafter referred to as the Rules for the sake of brevity. The provisions of the above said rules had been simultaneously specified in the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Stock Broker and Sub-Broker) Regulation 1992. The brokers have failed to pay fees to SEBI as required under rule 4(d) of the said rules.These brokers are required to hold a membership certificate with NSE in order to get a license from SEBI as mentioned under para 1.1 in terms of
rule 4(a) of the above said rules. Secondly, the brokers have to pay the SEBI fees mentioned
under rule 4(d) of the said rules. Since these brokers no longer fulfill this essential criterions
and therefore their certificates of registration are liable to be cancelled.

MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET IS HOT AFTER REVISE OFFER OF BEAR STERN TO $10 PER SHARE.INDIA WILL FOLLOW THE TREND NIFTY WILL OPEN GAP UP.RANGE FOE NIFTY IS 4600-4650-4700-4800.FINAL SL FOR ALL LONG IS 4550 IS ADVISABLE,FOR LONG SIDE BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICE IS LOOKS GOOD DUE TO SHORT COVERING.IN OIL&GAS SPACE RELIANCE IS LOOKS POSITIVE.OVERALL MARKET O I IS 61000 CR(APROX). PUT CALL RATIO IS .85.
HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY

Sixth Pay Commission submits

The Sixth Pay Commission headed by justice B N Srikrishna today submitted its recommendations to Finance minister P Chidambaram this morning at the North Block.Commission officials were tight lipped about the recommendations but added that the report had "right to reconcile the needs of employees with the overall fiscal situations".According to sources, the finance ministry will now vet the recommendations before proposing them for a final decision by the government.Source added that Chidambaram is likely to discuss the matter with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as well.Pay Commission was set in October 2006 and is widely expected to suggest an over 30% increase in salaries of 4.5 million central government employees.

MARKET SCENARIO

THE better-than-estimated quarterly earnings of some top US invest- ment banks last week may have slightly eased fears and given a fillip to the US markets on Friday. Yet investor sentiment remains nervous. Analysts maintain that overseas investors are likely to book profits on every rebound here on, due to rise in 'risk-aversion' to shares of emerging markets, including India. Traders are unlikely to take lightly the news of Monsoon Capital, a $1.2-billion hedge funds, far-
ing badly, as a result of the meltdown in Indian equities in the past couple of months. while Monsoon's exposure to Indian equities may not be as significant as compared to other major funds, there are concerns that the news may trigger more redemptions from other hedge funds with higher exposure to India. One of Monsoon's funds has dropped roughly 45% since January. "With such kind of news amplify- ing India's underperformance, there will be more redemptions from investors in other funds because of the herd mentality. The under- performance in Indian markets compared to others in this fall, is a clear reflection that India's growth story is yet to be understood well," said a senior institutional sales person with a brokerage, which services forty-odd overseas clients.
STOCK-broking firms will have to notify clients about their(clients') daily margin positions from April 1, according to a directive from market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India(Sebi). The move follows a spate of complaints from investors that brokers have been liquidating their positions citing insufficient margins, though their margin accounts had enough funds. The other common complaint is that investors were not aware of the quantum of margin money that had to be deposited to replenish the account. Such complaints could soon become a thing of the past once the new rule is implemented.

MARKET OUTLOOK

AFTER A LONG HOLIDAY MARKET LIKELY TO OPEN POSITIVE NOTE,IT WOULD MAINTAIN RANGE OF 4600-4700-4750-4800.EXPIRY IS APPROCHING FAST FOR MARCH SERISE THATS WHY SHORT COVERING COULD SEE IN THE MARKET.FOR LONG SIDE BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICE DUE TO SHORT COVERING AND FOR SHORT AT HIGHER LEVEL METAL LOOKS WEAK.
IN BANKING SPACE ICICI BANK AND SBI LOOKS GOOD
RELCAPITAL CORRECTED ALOT FROM HIGHER LEVEL SO LONG CAN ASSUME.
FOR SHORT SIDE TATASTEEL,SAIL LOOKS WEAK
HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY.

Yen Rises Against Euro as Carry Trades Cut on Commodities Drop

The yen rose for a second day against the euro on speculation investors will reduce holdings of commodities financed with loans from Japan.
Japan's currency strengthened against the South African rand and the Australian dollar, popular targets for so-called carry trades, after gold plunged the most since 2006 and oil fell more than $4 a barrel. Commodities sank on speculation the Federal Reserve will ease the pace of interest-rate cuts, maintaining the allure of dollar-denominated assets.
Risk aversion has reached a new level with commodities slumping overnight,'' said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist in Sydney at Westpac Banking Corp, Australia's fourth- largest lender. ``This will add bearish sentiment toward carry and commodity currencies.''
Japan's currency climbed to 154.28 per euro as of 10:26 a.m. in Tokyo from 154.80 in New York, bringing its gains this year to 5.7 percent. The yen advanced to 98.93 per dollar from 99.03. Currency trading volume in Asia today may be about 50 percent of normal levels because of a public holiday in Japan, said Rennie, who forecast the yen may move between 97 and 102 per dollar for the rest of this month.

Morgan Stanley Earnings Drop 42%

Morgan Stanley, which reported the first loss in its history three months ago, said earnings fell 42 percent, less than analysts estimated, as investment banking fees dwindled and loan values declined.
First-quarter net income dropped to $1.55 billion, or $1.45 a share, from $2.67 billion, or $2.51, a year earlier, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm said today in a statement. The average estimate for the three-month period ended Feb. 29 was $1.01 a share.

YEN PAIN

The Japanese Yen has appreciated against the US Dollar (USD) all the way to the 97 level. It has appreciated by about 6% during this month alone and is ~21% up from the last year's low touched in June 2007. Against the rupee also the yen has appreciated by 6.4% in the current month till date.In the past, Japanese authorities had sold yen on all the occasions when the yen-USD rate had approached the 100 mark, with a view to supporting exporters such as Toyota
Motors and Sony Corporation. However, charting a different line this time around, Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga stopped short of signaling concerns when the yen- USD rate inched closer to the 100 level and simply stated that the government needs to watch currency moves

MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET IS SHOOT UP AFTER FED CUT RATE TO 75 BPS TO 2.25%,INDIA WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE PHASE,NIFTY LEVEL 4600-4670-4750-4800.BANKING AND OILGAS CAN ASSUME IN LONG SIDE.IF NIFTY SUSTAIN ABOVE 4800 FRESH LONG CAN ASSUME.
HAVE A NICE TRADING

Lehman Net Income Declines 57%, Less Than Estimated (Update2)

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-biggest U.S. securities firm, reported earnings that beat analysts' estimates, easing concern that losses from the mortgage market are eroding its capital.
Lehman surged 18 percent in New York trading after falling a record 19 percent yesterday. First-quarter net income declined 57 percent to $489 million, or 81 cents a share, the New York-based company said in a statement today. Analysts had estimated Lehman would earn 72 cents a share.

Goldman Sachs Beats 1Q Expectations

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's largest investment bank, on Tuesday reported stronger asset management and commodities performance pushed first-quarter results well above Wall Street projections.
However, the investment house was not vulnerable to the global credit crisis. Goldman posted net losses on residential mortgages and securities of $1 billion, credit products produced another $1 billion loss, and investment banking returns were sluggish.
"Market conditions are clearly very difficult," Chairman and Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said in a statement.
Goldman reported first-quarter earnings of $1.47 billion after preferred dividends, or $3.23 per share, down from $3.2 billion, or $6.67 per share, last year. Revenue fell to $8.33 billion from $12.73 billion a year earlier.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average expected earnings of $2.58 per share on $7.47 billion in revenue. Reflecting the uncertain nature of the times, the 18 analysts reporting earnings estimates had forecast anything from $1.95 to $3.40 per share in profits.
Shares of the company rose 6 percent to $160.05 in premarket trading from a $151.02 close Monday.

US Stocks Heading for Higher Open

Stocks were poised to open higher Tuesday as investors anticipated a massive interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve just two days after the central bank backed JPMorgan's buy of Bear Stearns and also loosened up its lending.
In the meantime, investors will be hearing from two rivals of Bear Stearns Cos. -- Lehman Brothers Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- which are scheduled to release their fiscal first-quarter earnings Tuesday morning. Both are expected to post profits, but profits that are significantly lower than they were a year ago. Investors will want to get more details about the souring mortgage-backed bets on their books.
Stockholders have been especially pessimistic about Lehman Brothers, as it is the investment bank most similar in structure and exposure to Bear Stearns. Lehman shares fell 19 percent on Monday after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Sunday it was buying Bear Stearns for just $2 a share, or $236 million.
The Fed on Sunday, in addition to guaranteeing up to $30 billion of Bear's most troubled assets for JPMorgan, lowered its discount rate -- the rate it charges banks directly -- by a quarter-point. It also is allowing more types of financial firms to borrow from the central bank, and is accepting more various types of collateral.

After Bear Stearns Rescue, Who's Next?

With a deal in place to save Bear Stearns from bankruptcy, the company's shares traded above the offer price Monday even as investors began turning a critical eye to other investment banks amid worries about how far the credit contagion could spread.
Despite the weekend agreement for JPMorgan Chase & Co. to buy Bear Stearns for a fraction of its value last week, worries that other banks had sizable exposure to troubled credit markets sent global markets tumbling. The uncertainty was evident on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrials sank by more than 100 points.
At Bear Stearns' 47-story headquarters in midtown Manhattan, many employees said they still couldn't believe that the nation's fifth-largest investment bank is -- essentially -- out of business. Employees said there was no meeting to inform employees about what was happening.
"It's my first job out of school. I thought it was a big company -- it would be good experience," said Ki Byung, who works for a division of Bear Stearns. "Now after a couple of months something like this happens."
A complete collapse of Bear Stearns might have crushed the already-dwindling confidence in the global financial system, which has frozen up after last year's troubles in the subprime mortgage market.
Bear Stearns was the most exposed to risky bets on the loans; it is now the first major bank to be undone by that market's collapse. But the fact that a major investment bank could reach the verge of buckling -- and be sold at such a discount -- sent dismay through Wall Street and beyond.
"One reaction is shock that a company that reaffirmed its book value at around $84 on Wednesday can be worth $2 per share four days later on Sunday," said Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo.
With Bear Stearns seemingly gone, investors pondered who might be next. Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. stock fell more than 34 percent Monday, following a 15 percent drop on Friday amid concerns it might be facing similar liquidity issues. Lehman Chief Executive Richard Fuld denied Monday that the firm was having such problems.
Bear Stearns shares fell $26.32, or 87.7 percent, to $3.68 -- above the shockingly low price of $2 per share that JPMorgan Chase is paying -- while JPMorgan rose $3.03, or 8.3 percent, to $39.57. UBS AG, hit hard by the same type of write-downs for mortgages that felled Bear Stearns, dropped nearly 12 percent in Zurich.
JPMorgan announced Sunday night that it would acquire Bear Stearns for $236.2 million in a deal that was fast-tracked by the federal government to avoid a bankruptcy. The price represents roughly 1 percent of what the investment bank was worth just 16 days ago.
The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government swiftly approved the all-stock buyout to complete the deal before world markets opened. The Fed also essentially made the takeover risk-free by saying it would guarantee up to $30 billion of the troubled mortgage and other assets that got the nation's fifth-largest investment bank into trouble.
JPMorgan said it will guarantee all business -- such as trading and investment banking -- until Bear Stearns' shareholders approve the deal, expected to be completed during the second quarter. The acquisition includes Bear Stearns' headquarters, which as one of the world's tallest buildings could fetch more than $1 billion in a sale.
JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Michael Cavanagh did not say what would happen to Bear Stearns' 14,000 employees worldwide, or whether the 85-year-old Bear Stearns name would live on after surviving the Great Depression and a slew of recessions. He told analysts and investors on a conference call that JPMorgan was most interested in buying Bear Stearns' prime brokerage business, which completes trades for big investors such as hedge funds.

Bernanke May Cut Benchmark Rate by Most Since Volcker

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be readying the deepest interest-rate cut in a generation as the central bank struggles to prevent a meltdown in financial markets and a recession.
Traders predict the Federal Open Market Committee, meeting today in Washington, will lower the overnight lending rate by a full percentage point or more, based on futures prices in Chicago. That would be the biggest reduction since 1984, when Paul Volcker led the central bank, and would bring the benchmark rate down to 2 percent.
The Fed took emergency steps over the weekend to stave off a financial panic, lowering its rate on direct loans to banks and becoming lender of last resort for Wall Street's biggest dealers in government bonds.

MARKET OUTLOOK

GLOBAL MARKET IS MIXED. YESTERDAY ACCROSS THE BOARD WE SAW HEAVY SELLING,FII TURNED NET SELLER THROUGH OUT THE MONTH,SHORT POSITION IS BUILDING UP IN EVERY SECTOR.LEVEL TO BE WATCH OUT FOR NIFTY IS 4450-4500-4550-4600.IF NIFTY TOUCH 4600 AND ABOVE THEN CAN ASSUME LONG POSITION OTHER WISE FROM 4500 LEVEL LONG CAN ASSUME WITH A FINAL S L OF 4450 FOR ALL LONG.SECTOR COULD BE WATCH OUT FOR THE DAY INFRA&OIL GAS FOR LONG AND METAL FOR SHORT.
HAVE A NICE TRADING DAY